Innovation challenges: The Dual Horizon Problem (via Mike Walsh)
To see beyond the waves to the next horizon, you need to exercise a little imagination. Try this quick exercise. Start with a clean sheet of paper with two columns. Write a list of your major products and services (what you sell), business models (how you sell) and customer channels (where you sell) on the left. Now take your best guess at what direction consumer behaviour and disruptive technology might take in the next few years, and then push your ideas a bit further. Use this to write a list of items in the right hand column that should neatly oppose your current business. Congratulations! You have just sighted your second horizon.
Mike has a very good point here; I sometimes call this problem 'the duality dilemma' - how can you build a new business that may be entirely new when the old / current one keeps you so busy you can hardly come up for air...The Dual Horizon Problem – Disruptive Future | Mike Walsh
Without a plan to reach your second horizon, you may survive the present only to fall short of the future. It is like escaping a storm, only to discover that don’t have a final destination. Are you heading to an island paradise or the rocks of death? Not something you want to leave to chance! But before you get too excited, keep in mind that focusing on your second horizon alone is just as bad as ignoring the future altogether.