Access to music - i.e. a simple click-to-play, anywhere, anytime, anything - is replacing ownership. This trend will quickly accelerate due to the massive global build-up in cheap wireless broadband connectivity, leading us swiftly to the point where listening to a song will be exactly the same as downloading it (at least in practical terms, from the users' perspective). Some of us would argue that this is already the case, of course, but in terms of mass-scale user adoption I would say we are about 18 months away from the pivot point in the so-called developing countries.
The music industry needs to urgently get ready for this: sell access not (just) copies. Bundle. Package. Develop those new generatives. "When copies are free you need to sell things that can't be copied" (Kevin Kelly, The Technium).
Another important trend to embrace is the move to mobile devices that will pretty much replace the computer as primary access point to the Internet i.e. to all digital content. Mobile applications for smart-phones will take the place of sound-carriers; music will be sold as/in/via/with software. Read how Pandora is doing this, in the U.S.
The Net Generation (some call them the digital natives) is indeed drastically different than the TV Generation - see my bullets below. There is no way anyone can sell or market to them in the same way that still worked (well...somewhat) only 5 years ago. There is no way anyone can still monopolize their attention in the same way that mass media (TV, Radio, Print) did until now (sorry, IFPI and MPAA;). There is no way that anyone can 'own' or 'control the customer' any longer, period. The more you try to control your users, the less you will receive from them.
It's the End of Control and the beginning of Trust. If you want to know more - well, yes, you remember, I did write half a book on this in 2008, and it's still quite accurate, so check out the End of Control chapters (free PDFs, too), here. And please 'pay' for the book by spreading the word - use the sharing tools provided below. Thanks!
"The internet is radically disrupting most of the traditional content
distribution and selling models, starting with music and games,
followed by TV, film, books and print publishing. Once everyone
is always-on, mobile and hyper-connected, and everything is available
everywhere, how will content be created, distributed, marketed,
consumed, and paid for? Who will do what, for whom, and how will the
traditional players such as broadcasters, record labels, publishers and
distributors adapt? If new players, starting with telecoms, device
makers, advertisers and brands, indeed move into the content business,
what will be their challenges and opportunities?
Given the
challenging financial climate, how do we reconcile the need to reward
enterprise and secure sustainable revenue streams, with the
expectations and demands of the “freeconomics” generation? What kind of
legal, regulatory and cultural framework do we need to ensure that this
new eco-system of creators, consumers and intermediaries generates more
benefits for all involved?
Speakers: Gerd Leonhard, media futurist, author and blogger; Richard Titus, Controller of Future Media, Audio, Music & Mobile, BBC; David A. Smith, chief executive of Global Futures and Foresight (GFF). Chair: Ralph Simon, CEO, The Mobilium Advisory Group and Chairman Emeritus & Founder, Mobile Entertainment Forum - Americas.
I just started this exciting new Video Show with my friend and fellow Futurist Glen Hiemstra (Futurist.com), in Seattle, Washington. We will be recording a new episode every week, on a current topic. The shows will be between 5 and 10 minutes long, and we will try to get to the bottom lines as quickly as possible, giving each topic a quick futuristic angle (whatever that means;)
Glen and me have collaborated many times before, including the Futuretalk podcast & video series, and DVD (feel free to download the whole thing via Mininova, if you're interested). We also do think-tanks together - feel free to ping us if you're interested.
We are currently using Skype video recording and it works ok, but there is apparently no way to get better backgrounds integrated into the actual recording, quite yet - so if you have any better idea, please let us know. We are both Mac users, so we tried iChat which was cool - clouds and orbits in the background - but we could not get the audio to sync reasonably well with the video once we started recording (using Screenflow or Screentoaster) - not so good!
Visit the WhereIsItGoing website for more details or subscribe to the iTunes video-podcast feed here on Blip.tv (great for offline use). Hope you like it!
Clearly a major shift. It will be a huge task to build this new ecosystem. Deep and sincere collaboration is required. Domination is toast. Control is - like email, soon - for yesterday's emperors. Google and the Telcos need to dive into Content 2.0. Openness becomes a default requirement, not just a 'nice to have'. Friction is Fiction. Really. It's hard work. Yes.
The Google guys have just published a video with my talk at Authors@Google, in San Francisco, March 2, 2009 (see the details here Pdf: The End of Control Gerd Leonhard at Google SF PDF
*22MB). Due to some technical issues my fancy slides (i.e. the stuff on the screen) come across very nicely in this video while I am left a bit 'in the dark' - but if you use the HQ version on the Youtube site you can still get a much better idea of what my face actually looks like (I guess always wearing black is not ideal when the lights are bad;). Anyway, I do think this is one of my best talks, so... watch the entire 55 Mins 22 Secs. As far as the End of Control Book is concerned, I will have an announcement on my plans within the next 10 days...stay tuned.
Here is the official Google Talks description:The End of Control & The Future of Content: The tough
issue of control emerges, again and again, as the key contention point
within TV companies, publishers, record labels, and broadcasters: How
can a commercial venture that is based on so-called intellectual
property thrive and prosper in an environment that seems to
continuously and progressively remove control from the
creators/owners/providers of content, and hands it over to the people
formerly known as consumers (aka the users), effectively making them
more powerful every single day? But the reality is that every
click inadvertently makes another case for the consumers
ever-increasing rise in importance. Within all the conversations I have
had about things like commercial content versus shared content, about
the read-only or the read-write web, and about copyright versus Fair
Use, the crucial question always seems to boil down to WHERE IS THE
CONTROL HERE, i.e., questions such as Who will control this new media
universe and How much control do I need to run a revenue-generating
business?
I already blogged about the Youtube / PRS show-down (hey - that's a great word for this) in the UK, earlier today. After reading, twittering and talking to lots of 'real' people about this today, this is my conclusion: This conundrum is not Google's 'fault' but still: Google needs to really, materially and boldly get involved with facilitating the construction of a new content logic and economy, and lead content creators, owners and representatives into a new ecosystem that will actually work for all involved parties. Because it can.
Conflicts like Youtube vs. PRS are unavoidable because the canyon between Google - imho still pretty much the primary driver of Net-fueled innovation and disruption- and the content creators (never mind the industry) gets bigger by the minute. And, in my humble opinion, Google isn't doing nearly enough to explain this to them, and to guide them more conclusively into this new domain where content isn't always king, and where it won't matter if it is or not (if it ever did).
I talked about this in my speech at Authors@Google in SF last week; hopefully we will have that video available soon. The bottom line is that this will take deep, serious, multi-lateral, honest and open collaboration between these (and other) key constituents:
Content creators and the content industries (in that order;)
Telcos, ISPs, mobile operators and other telecommunications companies
Advertisers, brands, and their agencies
Social media and social networking platforms (of course all Internet companies, other search engines and portals)
Governments and governmental bodies
Welcome to a new Data Economy, a new Advertising Economy, and a New Content Economy.
Your turn, Google.
I will write more about this, but here's a quick illustration (thanks to Kevin Kelly for the power-lines & copy pic)
Image via WikipediaIn my work on the future of media, technology and content I often run across related areas such as tourism, banking, energy and transportation; and I have recently ventured into some of those sectors, as well (in particular, tourism - more on that, soon).
So here is a short burst I want to share from the world of transportation: I think the Cars of the Future will become more like Social Objects. Of course, this will vary drastically from country to country (and cultures) but I think that an increasingly large percentage of cars will cease to be owned, maintained, paid and used by one party only. Instead, groups of people will have fractional ownership (as the brilliant Kevin Kelly calls it), i.e. use, share or access the car when and where they need it, and thereby using motor vehicles much more efficiently.
This will be true for plain-old functional cars ('just get me from A to B') as well as for fun, sports and other special-purpose cars. The obvious advantage of enormous cost and energy savings will make this concept pretty much irresistible - the only thing that keeps most of us from doing this now, already, is our reliance on the car as a status symbol and (indeed) as some weird guarantor of 'personal freedom' (yes...I am guilty, too). I believe that this will turn around within the next 3-5 years: if you DO own a car, just for yourself and your own enjoyment, people may well consider you hopelessly old-fashioned; and not much admiration will come your way any longer.
I also reckon that within the next 2-3 years many Europeans will not really enjoy individual driving that much any more, with lower and lower speed limits becoming a constant headache, mega-traffic jams and congestion charges and significantly increased chances of delays. This will lead to a much increased demand for high-quality public and semi-public (i.e. first and luxury class) transportation, which will be even further boosted by the fact that people will of course be fully connected anywhere and anytime they travel - and since they won't be busy driving they can take full advantage of this.
We will see steep increases in car-sharing services of all kinds (e.g. Zipcar in the U.S.), and the concept of self-driving electric cars will probably become a reality much sooner than we think - just click the icon on your mobile and the next available car will show up on your doorstep; hop-in and be driven to your destination without lifting a finger.
Driving yourself will increasingly become an exception rather than the default. Talk about change: 100s of Billions of $$, and Trillions of brain-cycles freed up. Think about what we can do with all that time we used to spend on driving. Tele-learning, networking, co-creation, crowdsourcing... here we come!
Everyone that follows my work knows what my message to the music industry has been, for the past 10 years: Change. Embrace technology and empower the User. Make the Artists Partners. Give Permission. Collaborate. Innovate constantly. Get out of your own way. Compensation not Control.
Until a few years ago, to talk about transparency, equality and collaboration was considered treason and people looked at me with deep pity when I suggested a radio-like license for music on the Net. Today, the concept of blanket licensing music on the Net (no, not a tax, but a strong, open ecosystem that generates many new revenue streams) has become a solid contender for a new - and much larger - music ecosystem that is being put together as we speak.
For the last 8 years, trying to control digital music (DRM, CD protection, broadcast flags etc) has brought the music industry a fundamental and detrimental crisis, war (on file-sharers), value destruction, squashed innovations, and lost trust on all sides - artists, consumers, telecoms and brands! Well done, musical Bushs.
WHEN will the industry switch horses like America switched from Bush to Obama, from destruction to innovation, from money-just-for-us to money-for-all, from control to collaboration, from prejudice to openness, from broadcast to conversation...? Isn't it time that we leave those professional lobbyists and purveyors of costly snake-oils behind, that we hand the wheel to the new guys, the ones that understand what music & a life around music is really like, outside of their bubble and above and beyond their severely limited assumptions? Isn't time for the lesser-privileged minorities (such as the actual creators, and such as those that are not from the so-called Western world) to step in and catalyze those changes? Where is the Obama for the music industry?
Here in Cannes, France, at the annual MIDEM music industry conference, we have once again debated and contemplated (and wined and dined and smoked) for the last 5 days. We have noticed some 15-20% less attendance, empty restaurants and much-less-than-usual action in the exhibition halls - the music industry as we knew it is OVER. And good riddance. The organizers tried hard (and did well!) but you have to wonder: what are you (the industry) waiting for? Is it not time to VOTE FOR SERIOUS CHANGE in the music industry, and make that switch to an open, collaborative and mutually fruitful ecosystem? Like... now?
I am planning to dedicate a good chunk of my 2009 time and energy to this crucial topic: what are those new, web-native, social & inter-connected business models that will power the future of content creators and their industries?
In 2008, the disruptive force of the Internet has finally hit home, and - as is usually the case - it all came much later than we had estimated but the disruption is also much bigger than expected. A quick look at some trends in this context:
Digital music revenues are still going up, overall, but very very very far from enough to stop the free-fall of the recorded music industry, in general (approx 20%, globally, would be my estimate for 2008) *pennies for $$, see below
DVD sales are declining, worldwide, prices are falling, too - and this will only accelerate next year
My hunch is that the Internet may well - and soon - bring us an utterly scary reduction of traditional content models that is somewhere in the neighborhood of 1:5, i.e. if you keep relying on the old 'disconnected' content revenues models you may eventually see only 1/5th of the financial returns that you had before. This could vary by industry, location and context, of course, but I would dare say that if you stick to your old models the future will be bleak, either way - and this goes for the actual creators but even much more so for the businesses that are build around them.
To me, the bottom line is that most of what used to work just fine in a disconnected world of 'totally segregated consumers and producers' will simply not work in the future.
This is why I think 2009 will be year of:
Totally exploding consumer / user / fan / listener / viewer empowerment (yes, you ain't seen nothing yet - wait until 2 Billion + people are wirelessly connected via increasingly smart and easy-to-use mobile devices)
Re-inventing content commerce (such as: charge for access... not just units, bundle content into access, freemium etc)
Re-evaluating copyright as that sacrosanct, sole, principal, or even main driver of revenue - the solution for what I like to call 'digital payment-refusal' aka piracy is not a technological issue but a business problem
Re-inventing advertising (since new kinds of advertising will no doubt be one of the future drivers of content commerce, as well)
Getting the telecoms and network operators aboard - for they can't make it work without content, either!
I do have a hunch that this old Chinese proverb holds a part of the solution: “Tell me and I'll forget; show me and I may remember; involve me and I'll understand.” Stay tuned for 2009 - this will be fun.
I have been reading Chris Brogan's great post on how to improve blog-writing, and today I am implementing just one of his wisdoms: keep things short. Reduce. Cut the fluff. Yes, well, alright: I have been guilty of not doing that (you may have noticed). Enough.
Here are 10 ideas for future success in what used to be called Print Media (i.e. newspapers & magazines etc):
Decentralize your digital assets. Syndicate your strong content everywhere (and in niches, in particular!), offer full feeds, on all platforms (mobile being the top priority), make everything searchable. Finding and being found is what will make or break you. Distribution trumps destination - it's no longer just your homepage that counts; it's all those other doors, links, tags and tweets to your content - even if they are not yours!
Participate rather than be participated. Give permission for your content to be used, accessed, blogged, remixed, forwarded. Every ounce of protection aka friction will pull you further down to the bottom of this new ecosystem. There is real money in permission - and there is zero money in enforcing the laws that may have protected your dominant position in the past.
Micro-chunk. Fragment and re-aggregate. Send your content headlines out via Twitter and other micro-blogging platforms. Allow people to snack, have a light meal, or pig-out and gorge on your content. Offer all options. Slice and dice your goodness.
Mobilize....totally! Offer your content via mobile apps (and please, not just on the iPhone) that are easy to use, with simple UIs and strong functionalities. You may find you can sell the apps even if you can't sell the content, initially. Most of the future value may just be around the content, not just in the content.
Integrate the bloggers, the people formerly known as consumers, the professional-amateurs and UGC. The NYT has some very good initiatives in this turf, and so does Wired (check out their blogs and How2Wiki)
Engage. Engage again. And then engage some more. Talk to your readers i.e. users, get them talk to each other, and offer a unique and powerful platform for these conversations... around your content. Aggregate the conversation. Bundle it. Wrap it.
Filter. Curate. Contextualize. Inter-connect. Make sense of things. We, the users, need this more than ever and we will pay you to filter for, with and even through us!
Personalize and customize. Allow me to be me when I spend time with you. Allow me to widgetize, change my profile, look and feel, make your assets mine. Inject a bit of Netvibes and iGoogle into your pages.
Connect me to 'strangers like me'. Don't stop at making connections only between yourself and me - also connect me to your other users that might be of interest to me, that might generate added values for me; again, using your platform. Amazon has this down to a science!
Dive into Freemium models. Give me something for free that represents real value to me, but costs you very little. And please, upsell me from there - to all the other good stuff you have to offer. See: Flickr, Google, Skype.
This is a short video clip with a summary of my presentation at the Partnerships 2.0 event in Scotland, in October (where I was speaking for the Scottish Arts Council, more details and PDF here). A quick summary:
The future of content is digital (of course) and decentralized
The rise of Broadband Culture means we lose control over what people 'copy' and do with our content
Protecting our creations is pretty much 'mission impossible'
We need a boat to float down the digital river - not throw sticks in it
FICOD was an amazing event! Co-organized by Saatchi & Saatchi Spain (flawlessly done, btw) and sponsored by Red.es (a division of the Spanish Ministry of Industry i.e. the government) to discuss digital content issues, FICOD brought together 1000s of very keen, informed, open, and communicative people - this was Spain at it's best. An event like this is urgently need in all European countries!
And yes - the food was incredible, too, I highly recommend 'El Rabano' near the Palace Hotel where I had some amazing pescado [fish] dishes last night.
Anyway, El Pais wrote a nice comment after my presentation and a subsequent interview, here, English (Google) auto-translation is here. As promised, here is the PDF with most of my presentation (4.8MB low-res, high res-version to follow via Slideshare) future_of_content_free_shared_paid_gerd_leonhard_at_ficod_.pdf.
My key messages:
Less control will bring more success and more income for the content creators
Selling copies is a seriously declining business, selling access and attention is an exploding business
The traditional insistence on strictly enforcing pre-Internet copyright regulations is right and logical by the law (and good for lawyers), but really bad for future income - we must move beyond the 'sacrosanct copyright' idea to a new business model based on revenue sharing for all kinds of usages of content.
We don't need to compete with free - we sell many other valuable things apart from the copy!
A world of no permission is a world of no income
The copy economy becomes the share / access / usage economy
I was quite fired up for this topic since I had already spend the last 2 days at FICOD, with many good conversations happening, and watching the always-on Chris 'Longtail' Anderson and simply-brilliant 'kiwi' Kevin Roberts (CEO of Saatchi) give their keynotes, as well. All very good stuff!
The FICOD twitter channel is here (in Spanish), and their (video)blog is here. Hopefully they will have videos up soon, as well. A FICOD blog interview with me is here, more blog coverage of my talks (also did a lively panel there, yesterday;) at HoyTecnologica here.
Update: FICOD 2008 Video of my speech (dubbed in Spanish!)
This is a great video from a May 2007 panel at the Commonwealth Club in San Francisco. Even though it's over a year old, there are some great moments and nuggets of wisdom captured in this video (and not just from me;). Details: Commonwealth Club of California San Francisco, CA May 7th, 2007 The Future of music: "Digital Rights or Wrongs?" is the theme of this program examining what music rights and creative license will mean in the world of new technologies. What will music rights and creative license mean in the world of new technologies? From the music industry and claims of rampant piracy to online sharing and fierce advocates of fair-use, how will we access and enjoy music? Representatives from all sides wrestle with the future of music and digital rights for creators, consumers and
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