MediaFuturist: Concerns

New audio / video interview on the future of branding, business and the Internet (incl. some comments on SOPA), via TribeRadio

A few days ago, I did a fairly lengthy and deep skype interview with Toronto-based Marie Germain from Branding 2.0 (see her Twitter channel here), touching on many issues including the future of commerce, selling, marketing and branding, so-called social media (I much prefer the term Social OS), current issues in technology and the Internet (such as SOPA - the deeply disturbing but nevertheless impending U.S. Stop Online Piracy Act), and media / content trends.

There are some quite juicy snippets in this interview, such as:

"In an truly digital society we probably don't need marketing as we know it"

"We are moving from a society, and an economy, based on EGOsystems to a society that is based on ECOsystems (i.e. INTERDEPENDENCE)"

"The old days of commerce were based on handcuffing consumers, now it's all about attraction, engagement and conversations (being a magnet rather than using handcuffs)"

This video uses an interesting format in that it is based on an audio track that was recorded on the phone, and superimposes some related images over it. Interesting. If you just want the audio track, here it is:

Gerd Leonhard TribeRadio Interview Jan 2012: Branding, SOPA et al

From the TribeRadio Youtube post: "World-renown futurist, Gerd Leonhard, in this interview speaks of the very serious challenges businesses and brands face; he offers solutions. On a more sombre note he exposes the ploys of controllers on internet freedom, SOPA to be clear. The Wall Street Journal acknowledges Gerd as one of the leading media futurists in the world. Powerful! Incisive! Gerd is simply delicious to the ears. Keynote Speaker, Founder of The Futures Agency, Advisor to top corporations and governments, author of five books, "The Future of Music", "Music 2.0", "The End of Control", "Friction is Fiction" and "The Future of Content". Gerd's background is in music; however, today he is a top game-changer, inspiring entrepreneurship and guiding us into a prodigious digital world. To reach the Host of Tribe Radio, Marie Germain: at her blog, http://Branding20.wordpress.com or her biz site, http://MarieGermain.com..."

Be sure to check out the other audio / video interviews on here channel as well, including Jeffrey Hayzlett ('Running the Gauntlet' book, former CMO of Kodak).

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Posted by Gerd Leonhard at 5:40 PM in 21st Century Content Ecology, About Me, Advertising Trends, Attention Economy, Best of Gerd, Bottom Lines, Branding, Broadband Culture, CHANGE, Concerns, Consumer Insights, Content 2.0, Convergence, Creative Rights, Crossmedia, Crucial Stuff, Cultural Industries, Current Affairs, Data is the new Oil, Economic Egoism, EgoSystem EcoSystem, Fragmentation, Friction is Fiction, Future of Advertising, Future of Agencies, Future of Business, Future of Content, Future of Marketing, Future of Media, Future Watch, Innovation, Interviews, Leadership, Likemindedness, Link Economy, Must-watch, My Podcasts, Networked Society, Open Network Economy, Openness Issues, Podcasting, Podcasts, Politics of Content, Realizations, Resources, Social Media, The Futures Agency, Trends, Trust, Videos I Like | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

The latest updates from my Tumblr blogs

Greetings! In addition to the blog posts on this site I also post on 2 other sites, see below.

The latest updates from my Future of Business Tumblr Blog

The latest updates from my Green Futurist Tumblr Blog

Posted by Gerd Leonhard at 3:13 PM in 21st Century Content Ecology, About Me, Attention Economy, Blogging, Broadband Culture, capitalism 2.0, CHANGE, Concerns, Consumer Insights, Content 2.0, Future of Business, Going Green, Good reads, Green Futures, Inequality, Innovation, Likemindedness, Link Economy, Must Reads, My writings, Networked Society, Open Network Economy, Politics of Content, Predictions, Privacy, Real-Time Web, Realizations, Resources, Social Media, Sustainability | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Jeffrey Sachs "The Price of Civilization" - great video to kick off 2012

In this very insightful Authors-at-Google-video Jeffrey Sachs, Director of The Earth Institute at Columbia University, aptly summarizes several key topics such as the reasons for the economic crisis, the increasing inequality in America, and the consequences of globalization.

Watch the whole thing and you'll understand what the world - and in particular, America - is up against in 2012. And check out his book "The price of Civilization" - I just got it for my Kindle and will share my public bookmarks soon, here.

If you own a Kindle you can follow my Kindle note-sharing here.

From Youtube: "As he has done in dozens of countries around the world in the midst of economic crises, Sachs turns his unique diagnostic skills to what ails the American economy. He finds that both political parties—and many leading economists—have missed the big picture, offering shortsighted solutions such as stimulus spending or tax cuts to address complex economic problems that require deeper solutions. Sachs argues that we have profoundly underestimated globalization's long-term effects on our country, which create deep and largely unmet challenges with regard to jobs, incomes, poverty, and the environment. America's single biggest economic failure, Sachs argues, is its inability to come to grips with the new global economic realities.

Yet Sachs goes deeper than an economic diagnosis. By taking a broad, holistic approach—looking at domestic politics, geopolitics, social psychology, and the natural environment as well—Sachs reveals the larger fissures underlying our country's current crisis. He shows how Washington has consistently failed to address America's economic needs. He describes a political system that has lost its ethical moorings, in which ever-rising campaign contributions and lobbying outlays overpower the voice of the citizenry. He also looks at the crisis in our culture, in which an overstimulated and consumption-driven populace in a ferocious quest for wealth now suffers shortfalls of social trust, honesty, and compassion. Finally, Sachs offers a plan to turn the crisis around. He argues persuasively that the problem is not America's abiding values, which remain generous and pragmatic, but the ease with which political spin and consumerism run circles around those values. He bids the reader to reclaim the virtues of good citizenship and mindfulness toward the economy and one another. Most important, he bids each of us to accept the price of civilization, so that together we can restore America to its great promise...."

Posted by Gerd Leonhard at 3:24 PM in Asia, Attention Economy, CHANGE, Concerns, Control Fights, Current Affairs, Economic Egoism, EgoSystem EcoSystem, Emerging Markets, Future of Business, Inspiring, Interesting, Leadership, Market failures, Must-watch, Networked Society, Open Network Economy, Openness Issues, People, Politics of Content, Trends, Trust, Videos I Like | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

New video: Visions of a Networked Future at ITU Telecom World

Below is a 10-minute video excerpt from a really interesting session at ITU Teleworld 2011 in Geneva yesterday, October 26, 2011. http://forum.world2011.itu.int/sessions/f17-storytelling-2-visions-of-a-netwo... has further details and the complete 86 minute video.

This Quickfire Storytelling session brings together some of the world's leading futurists (see below) to share bold ideas and conflicting predictions of how the world might look in 10 years' time. This video (which we shot ourselves using a Kodak HDCam and Sony bluetooth mic) shows the first 10 minutes i.e. Gerd's introduction, the 5 minute talk and brief discussion with the other speakers and the audience. Twitter buzz is here

You can download the 10MB PDF of my presentation (unfortunately, the slides are not visible in the video), here.

More details on the other panelists

Gerd Leonhard, CEO, The Futures Agency
Rachel Armstrong, Senior TED Fellow, Senior Lecturer, University of Greenwich
Simon Torrance, Founder 2.0 Initiative, and Chief Executice Officer, STL Partners
Juliana Rotich, CEO, Ushahidi Inc.
Rohit Talwar, CEO, Fast Future

This is the audio-only version (right-click to save the MP3)

Gerd Leonhard Futurist at ITU Teleworld 2012

Posted by Gerd Leonhard at 1:12 PM in Africa, Attention Economy, Brazil, Broadband Culture, CHANGE, Collaborators, Concerns, Conferences, Consumer Insights, Control Fights, Creative Rights, Crossmedia, Crowdsourcing, Crucial Stuff, Cultural Industries, Current Affairs, Data is the new Oil, Economic Egoism, Future of Media, Innovation, Inspiring, Interesting, Leadership, Link Economy, mCommerce, Must-watch, My Podcasts, My speaking engagements, My videos, Open Is King, Open Network Economy, Openness Issues, OTT, Podcasting, Podcasts, Politics of Content, Privacy, Recession survival, Smart People, Telecom2.0, TeleMedia, The Cloud, The Futures Agency, VIDEO BLOG, Videos I Like | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

A new social contract for digital music (short video from the Future of Music conference in Dublin)

Here is a short clip from the Future of Music event in Dublin (June 2010) - best soundbite, imho: "It's about the creator and the user - period". Enjoy and RT. More videos (incl. download feed for iTunes) are at GerdTube.

Posted by Gerd Leonhard at 3:35 PM in 21st Century Content Ecology, Bottom Lines, Broadband Culture, Concerns, Conferences, Content 2.0, Copyright, Creative Rights, Digital Music, Disruption, Eoc: Music Industry, Future of Content, Future of Media, Future of Music, Gerd in the media, Interviews, Music Like Water, Music2.0 Book, My speaking engagements, My videos, Open Is King, Open Network Economy, Openness Issues, Politics of Content, VIDEO BLOG, Videos I Like | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

The Future of Intellectual Property & Copyright (presentation at TedXNewStreet, London)

It was a great pleasure to speak at TedX New Street in London yesterday (tweet flow is here, btw) I was allotted the usual 18 Ted-minutes to speak about the future of intellectual property and copyright - a piece of cake! Here is my presentation, below - let me know how you like it. Hopefully we will have a video on Ted.com pretty soon, as well. If you want a quicky download (rather than the high-res slideshare version, below), you can try this low-res PDF: Future of IP and Copyright Gerd Leonhard Tedx London LOW RES

The Future of IPR and Copyright (presentation at TedX NewStreet London)

View more presentations from Gerd Leonhard.

Posted by Gerd Leonhard at 4:27 PM in 21st Century Content Ecology, Attention Economy, Best of Gerd, Bottom Lines, Broadband Culture, Broadcasting, CHANGE, Concerns, Conferences, Consumer Insights, Content 2.0, Control Fights, Copyright, Creative Commons, Creative Rights, Creativity, Cultural Industries, Current Affairs, Economic Egoism, EgoSystem EcoSystem, End of Control, Eoc: Music Industry, Free!, Future of Music, IPR, ISPs, Link Economy, Market failures, Monetizing Content, MY PRESENTATIONS, Open Network Economy, Openness Issues, Politics of Content, Realizations | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

A must-watch short film: When Copyright Goes Bad

Last year, I was interviewed by Consumers International's Luke Upchurch for this really powerful film, during the 2009 TACD / Paris Accord meetings (see this presentation on the Future of Content), and a couple of snippets actually made it in here. Along with a few juicy snippets (incl. one by John Kennedy / IFPI), this film outlines the latest developments in this space really well - in fact, it's outright scary what is happening here - watch this movie!

To coincide with the second annual publication of Consumers International’s IP Watchlist, CI is launching this short online film, looking at the renegotiation of the relationship between copyright and consumers. This is a film about how copyright has become one of the most important consumer issues of the digital age; why corporate lobbying risks criminalising the actions of hundreds of thousands of people; and what the future holds for the fight for fairer copyright laws. When Copyright Goes Bad is for anyone interested in how copyright is affecting consumers.

Apart from my 20 own seconds of micro-fame, the movie also features: Fred Von Lohmann - Electronic Frontier Foundation; Michael Geist - University of Ottawa Law School; Jim Killock - Open Rights Group; and Hank Shocklee - Co-founder of Public Enemy. @Shocklee @michaelgeist @sunil_abraham @eff

Please share, embed and pass on.

For a variety of film formats, blog commentary, language versions, additional footage and more, go here.

Posted by Gerd Leonhard at 7:03 PM in 21st Century Content Ecology, About Me, Broadband Culture, Concerns, Consumer Insights, Content 2.0, Control Fights, Cool people, Copyright, Creative Rights, Crucial Stuff, Digital Music, Economic Egoism, Eoc: Music Industry, Future of Content, Future of Media, Future of Music, Gerd in the media, Inspiring, Interviews, Market failures, Music, Music 2.0, Music Flat Rate, Must-watch, Politics of Content, Videos I Like | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Some eBook industry 'leaders' are starting to sound exactly like the music industry 5 years ago

I just read this very interesting piece in PaidContent.org (one of my favorite sites): "Steve Haber, president of Sony’s Digital Reading Business Division... at the MediaBistro eBook Summit... decried the emphasis on the $9.99 price point for e-books. “The $9.99 price point is not a money-maker,” he said. “Certain bestsellers are sold at that price for retail, competitive reasons. But you need to have a range. You could go from $10 to $20 even to $100 for an e-book. There’s no sweet spot and it’s certainly not $9.99. When you walk into a bookstore and there are a range of prices. It should be the same for an e-book store.” Haber went on to defend the use of DRM, which he doesn’t see going away for awhile. “You need an orderly process to sell books and DRM makes that possible, mainly because it allows content creators and distributors to make money from that content"

Ouch. Have you not learned anything from happened in digital music during the past 10 years - where have you been hiding? Let me summarize it for you:

DRM is a total - and much discussed - nuisance and significant deterrent to legal consumer behavior, and it does ZERO to prevent sharing of copyrighted content online. DRM just turns users that have legal, fair and honest intentions into guinea pigs for digital rights protection schemes thought up by people who still have their emails printed for them. Wake up: protection is in the business model - not in technology. I may even concede that DRM may work in some (but increasingly rare) cases, but for books and for music...? No chance. Imho, you have to be kidding if you think these kinds of remote-controlled-rights schemes will make you any money in the future. In my opinion, anyone that still talks about DRM being a chief part of their eBook strategy should consider taking a longer vacation, and do some serious reading and thinking (sure... you could start with my own new book "Friction is Fiction" - ask me for the free PDF if needed; )

Face it: the price point for digital books has to be lower - much lower - than the price point for a real i.e. dead-tree, printed, shipped, physical book. Just because you can't seem to figure out how to reduce your costs across the board, start to add significant value in new areas and still turn a profit, that does not mean consumers will massively adopt eBook-reading at those price points (Kindle etc) or even above (as seems to be suggested above).

This looks like a very lame  rerun of the classic and most disturbing mistakes of the music industry: the incumbent market leaders really thought they could actually increase their margin as well as their ability to control the usage (!) when selling music online, i.e. have much lower distribution and marketing costs, keep the artists down to the same old, tiny percentage, and - yes ! - increase the prices on a per-track basis.

Ask yourself this simple question: what would have happened if a download had been priced at $0.20 or even 10 cents per track (or even, yes, a flat-rate), instead of $1 - would anyone still have bothered to try and download it for free, somewhere else? Could the value of those active, engaged and happy buyers be captured, and then be extended to other things you can sell them? Clearly, the answer is YES.

This is my message to the eBook industry and the publishers: do not head into the ill-fated direction of wanting to sell digital content for the same price as the physical content (or even above...ouch) - it is a pipe-dream!

Instead, make eBooks drastically cheaper, offer unique bundles and compilations, add new values all the time (cross-media anyone?), invent new packages (think mobile), and stop focusing on just selling UNITS. Flip the pricing logic before it flips you: lower prices, infinitely more engaged and legal users, and new Generatives on top!

Finally, here is something that wasn't touched on at Paid Content but that is crucial: If you think that the traditional deals with the authors will carry over into the eBook environment you are deeply mistaken. Witness what happened with Random House's eBook initiative, here. The authors (and their agents!) will need to be brought in as PARTNERS not minor players, as they have been in the past. Accept, adapt and move forward.

Posted by Gerd Leonhard at 3:47 PM in 21st Century Content Ecology, Best of Gerd, Bottom Lines, Concerns, Content 2.0, Control Fights, Current Affairs, Disruption, eBooks, Future of Books, Future of Content, Future of Reading, Must Reads, Print & Newspapers, Reading 2.0, Trends | Permalink | Comments (8) | TrackBack (0)

Will algorithms run our digital lives?

Demand Media (see this brilliant Wired piece), one of the biggest producers and distributors of online video (see the Mary Meeker / Morgan Stanley presentation here; page 42) produces 100s of 1000s of videos on topics that are solely determined by a proprietary algorithm that crunches data on popular search terms, keywords and their current rates on search engines, and information about how many web pages already cover the topic. If a topic is 'hot' and not yet covered, Demand Media commissions an army of freelance video makers, at $20 per video (!), to quickly produce short clips on the topic, e.g. on 'how to heel-flip on a skate board' etc.

Wired's Ryan Singel talks about AOL's similar new plan: "AOL’s new chief plans to combine algorithms, marketing partnerships and cheap freelance writers in order to turn the stale web property into a vibrant online content factory pumping out stories to fit the zeitgeist..." - all for the sole sake of taking advantage of the Google-page-ranking system i.e. to subsequently yield more advertising dollars.

With both examples, the idea is simple: to produce a huge a and hyper-distributed amount of fast, short - and above all - ultra-cheap content that is a perfect fit with the hottest and most expensive keywords on the web, today, so that the maximum advertising rates can be achieved at all times. In other words, this 'content' only exists as a way of garnering advertising revenues based on keyword popularity - hardly what I would consider 'adding value to the content ecosystem' ;)

In music, recommendations are already generated largely by software algorithms and data-crunching recommendation engines; some people even go as far as predicting whether a song will be a hit or not, using smart software engines (disclosure: I am on the advisory board of this company, uPlaya). Google's page-ranking system relies entirely on machine-intelligence, of course, and Twittercounter's top 1000 list is, of course, generated solely by data feeds - not by human editors (such as my own site, Futerati, which will, btw, be relaunched within the next 10 days).

Techcrunch's Arrington talks about the end of crafted content. Wired calls Demand Media a factory that stamps out money-making content. The Inquisitor talks about how this kind of approach is turning the web into an obese mess. The Washington Post sums it up, rather gloomy: "these models create a race to the bottom situation, where anyone who spends time and effort on their content is pushed out of business."

Here is what I believe:

Content that is produced only because of keyword popularity and because eager and / or desperate producers (no blame there, btw, just stating a fact) are willing to work for exceedingly cheap rates may bring in the immediate bacon but in my opinion will not last in terms of continuous popularity and therefore in long-term revenues. And if they do, great for them - but it does not mean that all content production will move in this direction. Every single person that likes to eat fast-food still knows the difference between Wendy's and a nice meal: yes, it's more expensive and it takes longer but it's a much better experience, and it makes you feel better. Fast food chains simply co-exist with 'real' restaurants of all kinds, everywhere - and that's what we will have in the content industries, too. If you want to make a quick buck by starting a fast-food franchise, go ahead. I, personally, don't like to eat fast food, nor would I enjoy running a McDonald's franchise so I will go a different route.
There will always be people who are willing to pay for better, deeper and more 'serious' content, and, in my opinion, increasingly so (mostly because of the trend towards mobile content consumption) - we just need to find new, web-native models of getting paid for content and translate the value of attention into tangible $. Yes, this is a real challenge, today, but new ways are emerging that will indeed provide plenty of resources for the continued creation of high-quality content. Let's have some imagination. Just because 100s of 1000s of aspiring teenagers want to see those free, ad-supported videos on pole-dancing does not mean we won't be selling video-on-demand, DVDs and books on more serious (or indeed, the same) subjects. Cheap, free and low-quality options have always co-existed with more expensive ones, and while the web has made this trend a lot more pronounced it will not spell the end of well-produced and high-quality content - the cheap stuff is simply first because so far we are lacking business models for the better stuff (for the most part).

What do you think?