Rolodex 2.0 - the social web is becoming our address book

Remember when we (meaning those of us 40+ years old) had those red moleskin diaries and notebooks with the names, addresses and phone numbers of all our friends and other contacts?  Remember when we had those impressive Rolodexes on our desks, with thousands of business cards in them? When 'having a huge Rolodex' meant having a lot of power? When we painstakingly scanned those 1000s of business cards we garnered at conferences and tradeshows so that we could load them into our databases, or maybe add them to our eMail news list? Remember when we had those crucially important mobile phone numbers in our phone's memory (or on the SIM card) only? When Outlook had all our email contacts? When having a computer hard-disc crash or a stolen machine meant that many of our contact details were lost forever because we were always sloppy with our back-ups?

Well, no more: all of this is quickly becoming the past, for these reasons:

• Everyone that I meet face-to-face is sooner or later added to at least one of my social networks (that is, if I actually enjoyed meeting them, of course), freeing me from the onerous task of having to manually keep track how exactly I met them. For me, LinkedIn has in effect become my electronic rolodex, and finding, retrieving and filtering people has become very simple. I constantly use LinkedIn to keep track of people that I have met, and to re-connect with them as needed - and I keep LinkedIn pretty much reserved for people I have met in the 'meat-space'  rather than just online.  The bottom line is that just like GMail has greatly simplified searching through your emails, LinkedIn, Twitter and Facebook are simplifying my people search; by far beating the traditional methods of keeping my contacts up-to-date.
• Everyone that emails me (or vice versa) is saved in my gMail contacts list - all I need to do is search (and yes, I do export my contact list regularly). Why would I export lists of addresses if I can always search for them? Why do I need Plaxo or iContact if I have GMail plus my social networks (and now, realtime search and Friendfeed streams?
• Twitter, Friendfeed and Facebook keep very good track of my current conversations and make it easy to see my most active network members, so if I need to find someone I can certainly do it here very quickly
• Google private bookmarking tools and Yahoo's Delicious (which I keep public) make it very easy to bookmark and annotate people that are relevant to me, for later retrieval. I do this with 1000s of people I have met - I quickly bookmark your profile and add a few keywords, and even if I totally forget about anyone I will still be able to find them 5 years from now.
• Apple's slick MobileMe keeps track of my datebook, my contacts and my files; and on all my Macs and iPhones and iPods

So are we becoming dependent on these new contact platforms? I guess so - but maybe it's better than looking stuff up the way we used to, anyway...?  You tell me.

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TV generation vs Internet generation: no more monopolies of attention, the new control is...Trust!

The Net Generation (some call them the digital natives) is indeed drastically different than the TV Generation - see my bullets below. There is no way anyone can sell or market to them in the same way that still worked (well...somewhat) only 5 years ago. There is no way anyone can still monopolize their attention in the same way that mass media (TV, Radio, Print) did until now (sorry, IFPI and MPAA;). There is no way that anyone can 'own' or 'control the customer' any longer, period. The more you try to control your users, the less you will receive from them.

It's the End of Control and the beginning of Trust. If you want to know more - well, yes, you remember, I did write half a book on this in 2008, and it's still quite accurate, so check out the End of Control chapters (free PDFs, too), here. And please 'pay' for the book by spreading the word  - use the sharing tools provided below. Thanks!

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What would Google do? A must read / watch for pretty much anyone (Jeff Jarvis)

 

Jeff Jarvis rocks - no doubt about it. I have been reading his new book "What would Google do" and in my view it's at least as important as Wikinomics or the LongTail. Check out Jeff's slideshow and video below (yes, you can fast-forward thru the first 8 mins of German intro;) - no matter what business you are in, this will give you some serious food for thought; if you're in the content business - well... watch it 5 times!
Some of his key points:

• The link changes everything    
• Do what you do best and link to the rest
• Join a network / Be a platform
• Think distributed
• If you’re not searchable, you won’t be found
• Everybody needs a little SEO
• Life is public, so is business
• Your customers are your ad agency
• Small is the new big
• Manage abundance (not scarcity)
• Join the open-source, gift economy
• The mass market is dead—long live the mass of niches
• Google commodifies everything
• Welcome to the Google economy

WWGD? - The PowerPoint

View more OpenOffice presentations from jeffjarvis.

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The Future of Selling - my presentations at the eCom Berlin Conference

On Tuesday March 5 09 I was invited to hold the Leaders Lecture at the inaugural eCom Berlin event; on Wednesday March 6 I had the pleasure of delivering the closing keynote on "The Future of Retail".

Here is are PDFs, below (provided under the Creative Commons Non-Commercial, Attribution License, as usual)

Wed closing keynote Download Future of Retail eCom Gerd Leonhard(10MB PDF)
15MB PDF Future of Selling Ecom Berlin Gerd Leonhard (Tues)

This work by Gerd Leonhard is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-Share Alike 3.0 United States License.

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iPhone apps more popular than music downloads: 1 Billion downloaded in 9 months. What gives?

Image via Wikipedia

Based on what Wikipedia says I am estimating that iTunes has maybe sold a total of 6.8 Billion songs since April 28, 2003 - i.e. exactly 6 years ago. Now Apple just announced that over 1 Billion iPhone & iPod apps were downloaded around the world (a good list of the top 20 free & paid apps is at Ben Tao's blog), during the past 9 months, already. Why is that? Why is music apparently less popular than software gadgets?  Here is my 2 cents:

• The music on iTunes is always paid-for while apps are sometimes free and sometimes paid (and at different price points), and are therefore an easier sell. Try and buy is still the best way to get hooked - and iTunes does not even allow me to listen to the full track before I need to shell out my dollar! In any case, the fact that some apps are entirely free can serve as a good reminder that for the creators there are many other, equally attractive forms of remuneration than just getting immediate cash. App developers certainly seem to have many other reasons than just getting paid 'by the unit', such as creating a stronger 'Pull' for their other offerings or providing the app to get a wider audiece for their skills - and the same argument could certainly be employed for music I would reckon. Why not start with the stream-on-demand, then offer the download for free or for a very low price - but then upsell the fans to a much larger fan package, similar to what Depeche Mode is now doing with their Season Pass. The ever-resourceful Techcrunch, btw, estimates app store revenues to be $777 Million for 2009 - I would be even more optimistic than that, though, because I expect much higher sales of iPhones and iPod after the next version comes out in June, featuring the build-in FM transmitter that can send the music wirelessly to your car stereo (radio execs... are you ready for that?)
• The music on iTunes is both too cheap and too expensive (depending on how you look it it), but there's nothing that fits the "free stuff + premium" package that people like so much these days (such as for my favorite, Instapaper) which is how most people get hooked on the good stuff. In this world, Freemium Rules, indeed.
• Most apps are really cheap and it's easy to part with a few dollars for something that may have real value for me - especially if one of my peers has just recommended it. I have purchased at least 40 apps, and I can tell you that the barrier to purchase an app is much lower than the barrier to buying songs at $1 / Euro 1. And yes, sure, unlike music the apps can't be gotten for free anywhere else (apart from what can be done with jailbroken iphones I guess) and that certainly is a factor - but even if they could be 'pirated', I would venture to say that I would still pay for them on iTunes, because it's LIQUID, quick, convenient, low-cost and no big deal. If the music industry can achieve the same (and not just on iTunes!), than you'll see those numbers go up, for sure. Liquid and friction-less are the keywords here - and that, to me, as you may have guessed, means the digital music flat rate.
• Mobile phone apps are about ME, about my personalized style and experience. The apps give me the power to select what I like, try it and love it or hate it. See a guy's apps and you can get a feel for who he is (yes... that goes for women, too, but unlike guys you probably don't see them comparing iPhone apps over a drink;). If we can make music -and other content- more personal, more customized, too, my hunch is that would help boost the sales, as well.

So, Music Industry, here is my recipe:

Lower Price Points + Freemium + Customizing + Value-Value-Value = Revenue Growth

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Cool Sprint 3G network commercial with some interesting statistics (video)

Write text here...

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8 key trends and some foresights for the next 5 years

Every now and then I get tempted into actually formulating some fore-sights. This time, the preparations for my upcoming speech on "New Media Futures" at the RSA in London have egged me on to share a few key points with you:

1) We will soon see the emergence of many different kinds of iPhone-influenced Netbook-like devices; some will be Apple-made but most will not. These devices may be 2-3 times the size of an iPhone and will connect to the Internet in every conceivable way, i.e. 3G/4G, LTE, Wimax, Wifi etc.  They will be touchscreen, zoom-interface enabled, cloud-computing, speech-controlled, location-aware, mobile-money equipped, socially hyper-networked, always-everywhere-on, HD-camera equipped and possibly project images and audio or even support basic holography.

In addition to the high-end, fully-loaded and perhaps still rather expensive versions that many of us in the so-called developed countries will gobble up, low cost and more basic editions for the developing markets will be sold in the 100s of millions (think India, China, Indonesia...). These smart gadgets will have very low energy consumption and therefore extremely long battery life, may even sport basic solar-power options, and may ultimately cost less than 30 USD, or even be 'free' (why bother to sell the box if you can make a lot more $ with selling services.... Nokia?).

It is these mass-market yet very smart and networked devices, together with cheap or free wireless broadband that will really revolutionize reading, newspapers, books and education; not to mention our music, TV and film consumption habits. Content commerce will be completely redefined as a consequence. As BTO told us a loooong time ago: "You ain't seen nothin' yet"

2) Very cheap or free wireless broadband - at fairly high speeds, i.e. at least 2MB / sec - will be available in most places, particularly in the booming new economies of Asia, India, Russia and South-America, and a bit later, in Africa. Funded by the likes of Google and by the future 'telemedia' conglomerates, governments, cities and states, wireless broadband will probably reach 3-4 out of 5 people on the globe within 5-8 years. User-generated & derived content (UGDC for those of you that must have an acronym ;), virtual co-production, mobile editing and instant network sharing will explode by a factor of 1000, making control of distribution a very distant concept of the past. UGC or UGDC may make up to 50% of the global content consumption by 2015. Consumers will be (co)-creators, marketers, sellers and buyers, and come in a hundred variations, from totally passive to totally active. Then, indeed, filtering, culling and curation will be the key to success.

3) Collective blanket licenses that legalize and unlock legitimate access to basic content services via any digital network will emerge, and are likely to take over as the primary way of content consumption, around the world (but in Asia, first). Just like water or electricity which is readily available when moving into a new home, the basic access to content will be bundled into access to digital networks, i.e. via ISPs, operators, telecoms, portals etc. This shift is starting with music (as already done by TDC in Denmark, and Google in China), and will be quickly followed by films, TV, books and newspapers. Access may often - but in local variations - 'feel like free' to the user but will in fact generate 10s of Billions of $$ via blanket licensing fees (yes... those pools of money), next-generation advertising and branding, data-mining & sharing, up-selling, re-packaging and many other new generatives. This topic will, btw, be the gist of my RSA presentation tomorrow - if you can't be there in person, you may want to listen to the live audio, via this link.

I think that governments around the world will call for and / or support the implementation of collective content licenses that wil finally legalize content usage on the Internet, similar to how governments pushed for the radio and broadcasting licenses  approx. 100 years ago. Whether these blanket licenses will be voluntary or compulsory remains to be seen - in any case the only alternative is to perpetuate a severely dysfunctional telemedia ecosystem that criminalizes almost all users and stifles innovation while generating virtually zero new revenues for the creators.

4) Fuel-cells and other next-generation mobile energy sources are a certainty. A serious increase in mobile device power (and therefore, its use) will be achieved by employing next-generation technologies such as fuel cells that could provide for up to 500x the usage time that we have today. This is likely to become a reality in 3-5 years and will revolutionize how we use - and how much we rely on - our mobile devices, especially in countries where there the fixed-line power infrastructure is much less developed or non-existent.

5) Completely targeted and personalized advertising, delivered largely on totally customized mobile computing & communication devices, will turn the the $ 1 Trillion USD advertising and marketing services economy upside down. Behavioral targeting and user-controlled advertising will, of course, become an even hotter potato and a much discussed challenge, but the good old deal of 'I give you attention & personal data and you give me value e.g. content' will be even more pronounced on the Net. In fact, advertising as we knew it is already more or less outmoded and will, during the next 2-3 years, be completely reinvented. Privacy and Trust are the #1 issues here.

The implication is that if your data (within your specific sets of permissions and opt-ins)  is used to bring you perfectly synchronized advertising, than advertising really becomes more like content, too. Watch this play out in the mobile advertising space, starting this year, and quite possible boost the global value of advertising-content by more than 100% by 2015. Google will be the main driver here, plus Facebook, Nokia and yes... Twitter (soon to be = Google).

6) We will witness the more or less complete decline of most forms of physical media within 7-10 years. The very definition - and thus the core economic business models - of newspapers, magazines, CDs, DVDs and books will be completely re-written, and new forms of content packaging will rapidly emerge. We can already see a preview of how this may work in the current mobile applications boom: content as part of software packages; paying for the packaging, the curation, the bundling, the personalization - not just for the zeros and ones that are 'the copy'. This trend is important not just because it will reflect the users' (or better... followers') new consumption habits but also because because of the increasing need to save energy and material costs - and moving from content products to content services will certainly go a long way in this regard. The total decline of printing in people's homes, and for personal use, will commence, as well.

7) Paying for privacy will become a distinct option. Today we pay to go online and connect; in the future we may end up paying for the luxury to go offline, disconnect, enjoy the quiet, and give our brain some rest. Maybe if we don't want to share our click-trails and usage data, we will be able to make cash payments instead - and the more you pay, the more private you can be..?

8) Travel 2.0: alternatives to 'actually going there' will explode: immersive, 3D video, virtual rooms, holography. This is a key development that will nurture new forms of entrepreneurship, education and group working.

Please talk back!

The Future of ICT / TIME: my presentation at the NSN Transformation Forum in Cologne

 I had the great pleasure to speak at Nokia Siemens Networks' Transformation Forum in Cologne yesterday (March 26, 2009). I really enjoyed the event and had lots of great conversations; and some Koelsch, too!  Rolf Hansen, CEO of SIMYO, was there as well, and delivered a very interesting presentation on 10 imperatives of success, which miraculously synced very nicely with own speech.

As promised, here is the PDF (creative commons-non-commercial + attribution licensed, as usual): NSN Innovation Forum 2009 Cologne Gerd Leonhard Futurist PDF 16MB

My topics included:

• The consequences of what I call 'Broadband Culture'
• Why and how digital content, UGC and Social Media are the biggest growth factors for the ICT industries, going forward
• Why telecoms and ICT companies need to get involved with Content, and move up the foodchain
• Why content flat-rates, starting with music, are the way forward, and need to be regulated
• The copy economy vs the access / usage / sharing economy
The Future of ICT / TIME: Futurist Gerd Leonhard in Cologne (NSN)
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Cool video: Microsoft's 2019 Future Vision Montage (and more via Officelabs)

This video provides a nice summary of some of the key computing and communication developments that we can expect in the near future. Whether MSFT will be a big part of that... who knows, but they did a great job with these videos; be sure to check MSFT Officelab's other cool stuff, here, as well - quite impressive, I think.

2009 predictions and trends: sharing some good links

Image by gleonhard via Flickr

I am using Twitter to share links pretty much on a daily basis. However, if you are not (yet) into Twitter and just want to follow what I write in my blog posts, here are a few links that I think are worth sharing as we move into the new year:

Steve Rosenbaum at AO: 2009 - 5 Trends That Will Change Media | AlwaysOn. Great stuff in here, and I like his summary:  "2009 will be a year of gut wrenching,  dramatic, roller-coast change. Big things will get smaller, or die.  Little things will survive and start to grow. Consumers will become creators.  Lurkers will become participants.  The volume of voices will expand exponentially  -  and the need for clarity and trusted filters will go from being useful to being essential.  Just as MP3s turned the music industry on its ear, and Craigs List turned newspapers upside-down,  the emergence of personal publishing and new forms of both trusted and Community Curation will have an immediate and long-lasting impact on media, commerce,  community and politics"

More gloomy but still with a dash of hope: EMarketer on Advertising Trends in 2009 (see some of their stats below)

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Best of my 2008 slides: The Future of Content, Media, Advertising and Marketing

Slide.com rocks - they even had a great track by one of my favorite artists, Alanis Morissette,  "Underneath" which I think is a perfect fit for my slides. Whoever licensed this to Slide.com - well done, and brilliant marketing!  The Music is not auto-on btw - so hit the PLAY button (i.e. speaker icon); it's worth it.

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A key trend for 2009: Conversation Enablement

Image by gleonhard via Flickr

A recent blog post by Seth Godin got me thinking about the power of Conversation Enablement and the idea of Social Books. Seth wrote about his vision of a conversation-enabled Amazon Kindle, egging me on to contemplate this: isn't Conversation Enablement something that already drives a lot of the most successful ideas, services and platforms, and isn't this very likely to explode in a financially-ultra-tight 2009:

• Twitter is really all about enabling a constant river (well... ocean, really) of conversation. The driving force is not really the linked-to information but the Context, and the Conversation that ensues as a consequence
• The iPod touch and maybe even the new Zune (and other connected music devices) are all about enabling conversations - they connect us to the content, but also to each other. Some people would argue that the each-other component is the part that will soon generate more revenues than the content, itself ;)
• The most successful mobile apps (Pandora and Last.fm for music, the NYT and AP mobile apps, Facebook, Google reader, Loopt) etc are also heavily into enabling conversation around the content
• Almost ALL of the companies that had huge growth in 2008 were based on conversation enablement: Youtube, Facebook, Last.fm, Twitter, Skype (see Mary Meeker's chart, below)

Something to be learned here, for 2009!  Source of image: Morgan Stanley Internet Trends 2008

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The Future of Mobile: Search more, talk less?

Ever since I got more friendly with my numerous mobile gadgets (the iPhone and iPod touch, the Nokia E71, the Asus ee and various other gizmos) I have noticed a steady decline in how many actual calls I make; apart from friends & family my professional communications have switched almost entirely to SMS, social networks, eMail, IM, Twitter, Skype etc - at least for the initial level of communication.  Now, is this just me, or is this happening everywhere? Once smart phones are actually smart (and that means smart UI and UX), will we search and click a lot more than click + talk?

Some recent stats I have seen show that iPhone users already use Google 50 times as much as mobile internet users with different devices. Once again: if something really works well... we actually use it routinely (just like GPS / car navigation I guess), if not we just ignore it.

So will someone that can use Google Maps on their mobile phone still call your office for directions? If you can use a Starbucks 'coffee ordering' app will you still use the phone to pre-order a round of coffee for your office mates? If you can tweet your friends that tonight's concert is canceled will you still need to call everyone to make sure they know?  Will someone that looks for the next Chinese take-out place still ask a stranger on the street rather than search on his mobile? Will you buy 'Time-Out' magazine to find the best Sushi restaurant in London when you can search Twitter, or pull up Tridadvisor or the NYT reviews on your mobile? Probably not. It looks like there are many calls we can do without, and if our mobile device (via a browser or more likely via a specific application) can do the job quicker and more thoroughly I think we'll be switching sooner rather than later.

The opposite is true for personal calls, of course - they will become more meaningful (and appreciated) than ever before; but only if there is a real need for it. If I can see my friends' immediate location on my mobile (using something like Loopt ) would I still call them or would I just go there and meet them?

This trend is also why I think Social Search on the Mobile has a great future - rather than searching the entire world, I search in the subsections and realms of my friends (real and otherwise), friendfeeders or tweet streams.  I already use the Search functionality in Twitter (see the pic - via the cool Tweetdeck application - check it out; they rock) and in Friendfeed to do that.

This is also why I am excited about next-generation gizmos like 3's INQ1 Facebook 'phone' - clearly, this is showing us where things are headed. Soon, we may be doing more searching - and finding - than calling. 

Media Futurist Mobile version

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Stream of the entire Futuretalks DVD with Glen Hiemstra *220 minutes

Drop.io rocks! More details on Futuretalks are here. The IT / Media Conversations pages and podcasts are here.

Discover Simple, Private Sharing at Drop.io

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The Future of Broadcasting: My presentation at the Dutch Broadcasting Convention (NPOX 2008) in Hilversum

It's always a great pleasure to be in Holland where people are usually very open to Change and... where 88.4% of the population is online ;)  I was invited by the Dutch Broadcasting Organization (OMROEP) to speak about The End of Control, the People formerly known as Consumers and the Future of Broadcasting (Radio and TV), at their annual gathering and conference, NPOX. 

Here is the Dutch description of the session:  "Gerd Leonhard (Swi) is Media Futurist. Volgens hem zijn we slechts 1 a 2 jaar verwijderd van een generatie die ´af en toe online´ is, naar een generatie die ´nooit meer off-line´ is. In zijn verhaal ‘the end of control and the people formerly known as Consumers’, laat hij zien wat de gevolgen zijn van deze verschuiving op het gebied van economie, cultuur en media en wat de trends en uitdagingen zijn voor de toekomst"  Google translates this in true web-way here.   

So, as usual, here is the PDF (4MB, ~50 pages) the_future_of_broadcasting_gerd_leonhard_npox_2008_.pdf

The Future Of Broadcasting Gerd Leonhard @ Npox 2008

View SlideShare presentation or Upload your own. (tags: broadcasting radio)

  

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