"Em uma sociedade cada vez mais conectada pela internet, ganham força a
colaboração e a troca de ideias como motores da inovação. Soluções
adotadas até recentemente já não se aplicam mais. Quem alerta para essa
mudança são dois estudiosos das transformações que a tecnologia vem
impondo: o norte-americano Steven Johnson, professor da Universidade de
Nova York e autor do best seller De onde vêm as boas ideias — a história
natural da inovação, e o alemão Gerd Leonhard, fundador do instituto
Green Futurist, também autor de obras como The Future Of Content, entre
A dupla de pensadores do futuro estará participando do 5º Congresso
Internacional de Inovação, promovido pela Fiergs, nos próximos dias 30 e
31, em Porto Alegre (informações e inscrições no site
www.fiergs.org.br/inovacao2012 ). Johnson e Leonhard anteciparam algumas
das ideias que discutirão no evento em entrevistas concedidas por
e-mail a Zero Hora. Confira os principais trechos.
Gerd Leonhard — Fundador do instituto Green Futurist
ZH – Como o uso cada vez maior das redes sociais está mudando a forma
como as pessoas interagem entre si e se relacionam com as empresas,
Gerd Leonhard – Estamos nos tornando uma sociedade conectada. Em
alguns casos, tanto “compartilhamento” e transparência poderá acabar com
nossa privacidade, mas, de uma maneira geral, esta nova era traz mais
benefícios. Consequências claras disso são um aumento radical do poder
dos consumidores, maior transparência política e declínio da corrupção,
marketing mais honesto e publicidade mais útil. Deveríamos, aliás,
descartar o termo mídias sociais porque não se trata apenas de mídia,
mas de algo que chamo de Social OS (sistema operacional social). Cada
empresa ou governo deverá se tornar conectado, aberto, transparente e
engajado. Caso contrário, iremos ignorá-los.
ZH – Alguns críticos dizem que a internet tornou disponível um grande
volume de informação, mas o uso que se faz desse conhecimento é
superficial. O senhor concorda?
Leonhard – Em 1971, Marshall McLuhan disse que a aldeia global não é
“quieta e harmoniosa”, mas tem dose considerável de barulho e caos. Não é
questão de overdose de informação, mas de filtro. É aí que os
jornalistas entram: não basta só conteúdo, é preciso contexto. Não se
trata só de volume, mas de dar relevância aos fatos.
ZH – A internet já transformou a indústria musical e agora está
mudando o cinema, a TV e o mercado literário. As corporações ligadas a
esses ramos, porém, parecem não estar faturando como antes. As empresas
terão de se habituar a ganhar menos nesta nova realidade?
Leonhard – Na era dos monopólios, as empresas estavam habituadas a
margens de lucro fantásticas porque os consumidores não tinham escolha.
De agora em diante, os preços por unidade de conteúdo estão caindo, em
alguns casos, até 90% – veja o Netflix (serviço de vídeos online) x
DVDs. As boas notícias são que mais pessoas podem ser alcançadas por
meios digitais, os custos de distribuição são menores e a publicidade
está se tornando digital rapidamente – nos próximos três a cinco anos,
veremos 50% dos orçamentos publicitários – globalmente, uns US$ 600
bilhões – migrarem para meios digitais, móveis e sociais. Há grandes
oportunidades, mas nada será como era 10 anos atrás.
ZH – Atualmente, a Apple é considerada a mais criativa e valiosa empresa do mundo. Essa posição conseguirá ser mantida?
Leonhard – Sou fã da Apple, mas essa visão de mundo extremamente
centrada e controlada que a empresa tem não se sustentará. Eles terão
mais uns bons cinco anos – a genialidade de Steve Jobs continuará a
impulsioná-los nesse período. Startups surgem em toda parte, e a próxima
Apple deverá começar a aparecer já em 2013.
ZH – Há quem aposte que o próximo grande embate no setor de tecnologia será entre Google e Facebook. Quem vencerá essa briga?
Leonhard – Há espaço suficiente para cinco ou seis Googles e
Facebooks, assim, como hoje existe espaço para DHL, Fedex e outras
empresas de correspondência. À medida em que o mundo está se tornando
hiperconectado, será mais importante quais problemas as grandes
companhias poderão resolver do que quanto elas irão faturar no próximo
Musik fliesst heute überall, jederzeit und auf allen Geräten, egal ob
wir einen Download oder einen sog. Stream wollen. Der Unterschied
zwischen Anhören und Besitzen ist bereits fast vollkommen verschwunden -
und genau das ist die Herausforderung für die gesamte Musikwirtschaft.
Wir brauchen dringend neue Geschäfts- und Kulturmodelle die diesem
unwiderlegbaren Trend Rechnung tragen.
Eröffnungsrede / Begrüssung
Präsentation: Eine neue Internet Musiklizenz und die Musik-Flatrate: was, wie, wer und warum?
Gerd Leonhard, Autor, Musiker, Futurist und CEO TheFuturesAgency (Basel)
Stellungsnahmen zum Thema:
Acht eingeladene Gäste, u.a. Tim Renner / MotorMusic Berlin, Poto Wegener / Swissperform.
Zusätzlich werden eingeladen: Vertreter der SUISA, IFPI, Musikschaffenden, Parteien, IGE.... etc.
Teilnehmer werden nach Zusage umgehend bekanntgegeben
Öffentliche Diskussion und Debatte
Update: ein kurzes Video von Gerd
Resourcen zum Thema
Here are the best snippets from Roger's review (and the rest of it is a good overview, as well!)
By Roger Tagholm
"Access not ownership, relationships not transactions and concerns over who owns the channel to market – these were some of the themes of the second World E-Reading Congress which began in London on Monday. Once again, organizers Terrapin had assembled a powerful line-up of speakers who provided a one-stop take on what is happening in the digital space. From “haptic technology” (from the Greek Haptikos, “pertaining to the sense of touch”) to “lean back” readers, this was also the place to get a jargon update and phrase fix.
The View from a Futurist
Media Futurist Gerd Leonhard kicked things off. He believes the debate will soon be about access, not ownership and said that “for those over 30 it’s very hard to understand this switch. There will be some ownership, but it won’t grow. With music, iTunes sales are flat, but streaming is growing. It will happen with books. A Spotify for books will come. If a student wants 300 books, he’ll buy a three-year subscription”. Small examples of that already exist, but Leonhard means on a mass scale, such as that being contemplated in Brazil “where the government is looking to buy 100 million devices for students so they don’t have to buy the physical books”.
He believes there is more to the future than walled gardens and that “humans need meaning, not just cool technology. In the end, meaning is money. Apple has meaning, even though it is a totally walled garden — an oligopoly, a cult.” During the next three to five years he thinks we will see telemedia convergence. “The telecoms industry will realize that it will have to make deals with ISP operators to sell content — so that if you buy this SIM card, for example, you can get ten books.
“For the consumer, access to content will become much cheaper. We cannot force the consumer to pay the same for digital as physical. Technology owners reads more, so why penalize them? We need to innovate now to keep them.”
Sharing, he maintained, should be “non-negotiable. Sharing does not create economic damage.” Publishers must engage with their customers; attitudes to piracy must be rethought (“piracy happens when motivation meets opportunity”); and publishers must build value around content “because payment works if the context is right — if there is a reason, people will pay.”
Added note: "Duncan Edwards, President and CEO of Hearst Magazines International, took an entirely different view on pricing. “We have discovered that, because of the ease of use, people are prepared to pay as much — or even more — for the digital versions of our magazines.”
Really? Not sure that maybe that have just discovered their own desire to get as much as before, and found some willing fans - rest assured, this won't last. Look at iTunes and the music industry:) People will not continue to buy songs for €1 every time they are interested. Unsustainable, imho:=)
"We now live in a digital society, networked, mobile, social and always-on. In this super-noisy, decentralised world of constant self-broadcasting, liking, sharing and networking, how will an artist, a manager, a label or publisher, or any other business get attention, and reach their audiences? If interaction comes before transaction, what does marketing look like in the next few years? How does one build a strong brand in this world..."
This was a cool panel and a nice group of people (thanks to GSMA for the picture, btw). Dan Hodges, Head of Global Sales, Digital & Emerging Products, Associated Press, Matt Hull, VP Product Marketing & Operations, AT&T, Michael Roth, Chairman & CEO, IPG, Scott Seaborn, Head of Mobile Technologies, Ogilvy Jay Altschuler, Global Media Communications Planning Director, Unilever
Gerd Leonhard, media futurist and CEO at The Futures Agency, opened up the general session at the FPA Business Solutions 2011 conference in Boston yesterday to a packed room of advisors. His message: Dive in to social media. ‘Faster Horses’ Leonhard started his presentation by explaining if Henry Ford had asked people what they wanted, they would have said, “faster horses,” because they didn’t know there was something completely different and better. It was a thought-provoking comment, setting the stage for his views on the future of businesses, technology and how advisor business will be impacted. Why Networks Are Important Leonhard showed how companies like Texas Instruments used to be known for calculators, but not anymore. Today it has adapted and individuals can just download the app. Another change is that customers now have more power than they did before. For example, individuals can use Kayak and other services travel agents would only have had. What has changed is that there used to be broadcasters sending out information. Now it is about being a network. Successful companies like Amazon and Google connect people. “They are ecosystems.”
Leonhard proved his point by asking, “Why would you connect your Facebook account to Amazon?” He then explained how Amazon was able to cross reference individuals in one’s network to see what others are reading. “It resulted in a 13% increase in one sweep,” Leonhard shared. Although the United States has leading companies, “America has fallen a bit behind on mobile [usage], but the country is catching up,” stated Leonhard. When it comes to falling behind the times, the music industry is a perfect example. From $14.6 billion in 1999 to $6.3 billion in 2009, it has seen a 71% decline. Conversely, Leonhard gave the movie industry as an example of adapting, with a company like Netflix doing it right. More Fragmentation Social media is shifting from social conversation to social commerce. Leonhard said, “It’s not a better mouse trap, it’s a whole new logic.” I Love Lucy used to pull in a huge percentage of the country’s TV viewership, now American Idol, the biggest show, only captures 4% of Americans, because today people have so many more options. Leonhard advised, “Expect more fragmentation.” Leonhard is certain that disruption is something businesses will have to face. The only question is whether they do the disrupting themselves. Case in point, look what Craigslist did, taking all the business from traditional classifieds. Opportunity For Advisors A crazy amount of information is being put on the Internet. For example, 26 million photos are uploaded to Flickr every day. People are publishing more and more information, which can result in just noise. “A connected world can be noisy. The noisier the world gets, the more everyone will need better filters,” Leonhard said. The overload of information actually presents an opportunity for advisors to play the role of disseminating what is the most important and relevant in a timely manner. “Your job is to filter the ocean of information. Your clients don’t have time to go through it all.” “Add transparency. Declare what you are doing. Trust is crucial,” he recommended.
Leonhard encouraged advisors to become active with social media if they are not already. “Anticipate what is on the horizon,” he said. “What is coming up next?” For example, some see newspapers dying, but what about e-mail? He shared that 75% of kids in Brazil have not seen a book, they use their mobile device. To push the envelope, he showed a video of an Audi that drives itself. Ask These Questions Leonhard said the key questions are, “Why are you in business, what do you do, and how do you do it? We are living in a knowledge economy. We are no longer living in an economy of stuff. So how do people use the knowledge? Are [advisors] people of the paper? [If so, are they] working with people of the screen?” Real-time Engagements People don’t want to wait anymore. “Think about now-ness. They are not interested in last year’s info. What is happening today?” He gave this example to illustrate his point: If you want to know the best place to get sushi in New York City, do you look online at reviews that could be two years old, or do you search Twitter and find reviews from people that are probably still at the restaurant?
Ideas For Advisors When it comes to deciding how to use social media, Leonhard said, “It depends where your clients are.” It is easy to see the huge amount of stuff on YouTube, Leonard said, and he told advisors to “sit down with a flip camera and get started. There are two billion videos watched per day on YouTube. If you don’t have videos, start doing them!” When it comes to the importance of being on social networks, Leonhard shared, “Facebook is the biggest broadcaster in the world. Every fifth minute on the Internet is spent on Facebook ... You can run ads on Facebook and they are very efficient.”....
I was invited to do the opening keynote at Ericsson's 'Shaping the Networked Society' event at this year's mobile world congress (MWC) in Barcelona, on February 14, 2011, see my blog at http://gerd.fm/i9Dh9I. Some of the topics I covered include the challenges and opportunities of convergence (TV-Web, Mobile-Fixed, real money - virtual money), new currencies and paying with facebook credits, companies becoming platforms not empires, what is beyond the current social media enthusiasm, the new paradigm of 'interaction before transaction', the tough but inevitabe switch from ownership to access (both in content / media as well as in general), the rise of the 'following paradigm', how the media and content industries are changing, and much more.
Some more details: Berklee alumnus Gerd Leonhard '87 will be conducting a workshop for Berklee Alumni called "Monetizing Music in a Connected Society." To officially RSVP, please email firstname.lastname@example.org.
"We are moving quickly in a globally networked society: information...(and content) travels ever more quickly around the globe, more and more voices are and artists are asking to be heard, and more music is being published every single day. In a world where people access music like the flow of music like water from the faucet, where music is ubiquitous and available in the cloud, anytime, how do you build your audience, how do you cut through the noise, how to you make money with attention, and how will you make a living in 5 years? Will human creativity be rewarded or will computers start writing songs that other computers 'like' and retweet? Gerd will present some key learnings and foresight, and will share some ideas about where things are going, and how can make a living with music, in the immediate future...."
This is a good one - loads of information in here, and pretty well recorded. More details and PDF with all slides, here. Enjoy and spread the word. Subscribe to my video RSS feed, here, if you want (download all videos directly to iTunes, watch on your iPod etc).