Link: P2P Blog � P2P traffic on the rise in Germany.
Germans love file sharing more than ever, according to a new study published today by the Leipzig-based Ipoque GmbH. In the daytime about 30 percent of the country's internet traffic is caused by P2P. At night this number goes up to a whopping 70 percent.
Not surprising but ... good research
Link: The Long Tail: Mainstream Media Meltdown III.
Good stats from the Longtail author, Chris Anderson
Link: The End User: More world on the web - Print Version - International Herald Tribune.
And guess where the music and media business is moving... East!!
Link: eMarketer.com - China's Ringback Tones Ring Up Sales.
Not ringtones, ringback tones.
In an emerging society, and the largest mobile phone market in the world, ringback tones — the sounds callers hear as they wait for an answer — have become a way for users to express themselves and a very big business.
In the US, Ipsos Insight estimates that only 6% of mobile phone users have downloaded ringback tones.
Link: Expatica's German news in English: German music industry hit by illegal copying.
"Despite high expectations, 2005 turned out not to be the year in which the turnaround for the music industry took place,
WHEN will they ever learn... the ONLY growth in music is in DIGITAL.
Link: Who's Listening to Podcasts?.
EMarketer always digs up good numbers!
Emarketer says: "Although
subscriptions are still the most common way for consumers to purchase
content online, single purchases are becoming more popular thanks to
online digital music sales..." ...
I am not so sure about this - will comment in details shortly!
A
new survey finds that although ringtones are popular among both males
and females, there are significant differences between the sexes when
it comes to the types of mobile music downloads they purchase. 
good stats here. "Widespread
broadband adoption combined with the digitization of music and the
emergence of portable digital music players is fundamentally changing
the music industry," said Ben Macklin, Senior Analyst at eMarketer and
author of eMarketer's new report, Online Music: Downloads, Streaming, Radio, Mobile.
"While the Kazaas and the Groksters and eDonkeys of the world will
continue to be the underground nemeses of copyright holders, legitimate
online music services such as iTunes, Napster, Rhapsody and others are
competing with P2P networks, and an increasing percentage of all music
sales are being conducted online."
EMarketer is always a great source for some cool stats.
"Master tones were introduced in 2004 and brought in $15 million in
revenue against $157 million earned from downloads of polyphonic tones.
Monophonic tones were already declining. Jupiter projects master tone
and voice ringer sales at $156 million for 2005, polyphonic tones
growing to $224 million and monophonic ringers dropping to $38 million." Still, imho, this business is a FASHION BUSINESS and won't sustain very long. But hey - take it while it's hot! 
That dam is broken. Get the bottom line at Slyck News. Time for getting a volontary or compulsory blanket license in place for the p2p networks, IMHO. Summary: "
Although the mainstream media tends to report there is a decline in P2P
and file-sharing usage, it appears this is largely incorrect. Quite the
contrary, the interest in P2P and file-sharing networks appears to be
at an all time high, with no end in sight...."
ClickZ stats reports
Interesting trend --- more fuel on the fire?
From PaidContent.org: (a great resource, btw), here are some interesting facts
-- StarzTicket, the Starz-RNWK
joint venture: "On average, our subscribers are downloading about 10
movies per month," said Bob Greene, senior VP. "That's [about $1.30]
per movie [for $13 per month]."
-- Movielink: about 1,000 movie
titles available for download, and about 100,000 downloads
per month...
-- CinemaNow: a collection of
about 7,000 licensed movies, which it expects to increase to about
10,000 by the end of the year. About 3,000 are available for download"
From the FRUKT newletter: "BPI figures show that people in the UK buy on average 3.2 CDs each every year. The other top countries are; US (2.8), France (2.1), Japan (2.0) and Germany (2.2)".
Some pretty relevant numbers, imho. Clearly, CDs are not getting a whole lot of people excited anymore. If we could get 90% of people in the 'rich nations' to spend a very low flat fee on music, every year, that would be a huge sea change. Is this where Napster To Go is heading?
More on the above stats here
From MOBZILLA
# Global non-voice (data) mobile services market will be worth $126 Billion in 2008, more than doubling 2003 levels. This represents almost 20% of mobile operator revenues. (source: ARC Group report, "Mobile Content and Applications 2003")
# 66% of US households have cellphones. On average, these people pay $60 per month on their mobile service plans. (source: Scarborough Research Oct 2003)
# Global wireless subscribers projected to jump from 1.5 billion at the end of 2004 to over 2.5 billion in 2009. (Source: In-Stat/MDR study, Aug 04)
# Mobile phone sales to consumers topped 510 mil units in 2003 and will exceed 560 mil units in 2004, (source: the big three research groups: Gartner Dataquest, IDC and Strategy Analytics)
# Mobile phone sales in North America grew 30 percent in the first quarter. (source: the big three research groups: Gartner Dataquest, IDC and Strategy Analytics)
# 3.72 million iPods have sold to date, including 860,000 in the third quarter alone. (source, Bloomberg News by Connie Guglielmo, Oct 12, 2004)
# Internet and mobile music download and subscription services will generate $4.5 billion by 2008, accounting for 33% of all music sales worldwide (Newsweek July 26, 2004, - Apple, NPD Group, Jupiter Research, Forrester Research)
# a recent Consumer Mobility Study by In-Stat/MDR finds that 11.4% of US mobile subscribers are very or extremely interested in moving beyond basic ringtones and purchasing more full-featured music/audio services for their wireless phones including music and news/talk content available as downloadable content or on demand. The most popular service concept is the ability to download MP3s or other digital music files directly to wireless handsets, followed closely by the ability to listen to streaming music on demand.
# Cellular Music Decks (CMDs) are the next 3G opportunity, while total music-enabled device sales will scale to 54% of global handset sales in 2009 (Strategy Analytics' newly released report, "Music Enabled Handsets- Next 3G Device Focus.")
EMarketer has some new stats on US broadband adoption... moving very quickly. Here are 2 slides I have put together to comment on how this effects Digital Music.
A good summary from Music Tank
A recent Pew Internet survey of artists and musicians in the US has revealed that a large majority have embraced the Internet and consider it to be a helpful tool to their careers.
+ 32 million Americans consider themselves artists and about 10 million of them get some kind of compensation for their creations and performances; + American artists have embraced the Internet as a creative and inspiration- enhancing workspace where they can communicate, collaborate, and promote their work; + Artists are divided, but not deeply concerned about the file sharing that happens online; + They want control over their creations, but most do not say Internet piracy is a big threat; + Artists think unauthorized peer-to-peer file sharing should be illegal, and most would go after the companies, rather than individual file-sharers; + Online artists are also active consumers of media content online. But those who download files say if they get content for free, they usually support the
artist or author in other ways. [Source: Mary Madden, Artists, Musicians and the Internet. Pew Internet & American Life Project, December 5, 2004]
2004 report... gotta read it myself first
I'm a bit sceptical on this report given the current pricing policies for downloads. I think Digital Radio will be cheaper alternative, and of course... the RENTING model. Some quotes from this link: "Online music sales hit massive growth By Jonny Evans. Online music sales will exceed $6 billion in 2010, according to the Informa Media Group (IMG). A report - 'Music on the Internet' - published today, estimates that the share of global music sales made online will rise from 4.6 per cent in 2004 to 15.2 per cent in 2010. Digital-only sales will account for $3.1 billion of the total, or 7.7 per cent of total music sales. IMG claims that online sales of physical music media such as CDs will cease to dominate, with the proviso that: "The steady rise of download and subscription revenues will not impact on retail as quickly as some have suggested. Looking ahead, the report predicts that digital downloads will continue to dominate (in terms of the value of sales) against subscription-based services. IMG predicts that digital downloads will be worth $422.7 million in 2005 (this year, $179.5 million). Subscription service revenues will climb from this year's estimated $103.7 million to $191.7 million next year By 2010, digital download sales will be worth a storming $1,981.2 million, and subscription services will raise 1,124.4 million, the report predicts.
From Digital Lifestyles
"A new report by research and analysis firm Generator, predicts that the digital song download market in Europe will reach $5.7 billion (€4.5 billion) by 2009. If this figure pans out, it will mean that the download market will account for about 40% of the total recorded music market. The report also predicts that the mobile channel will figure largely in this market growth, up to $777 million (€610 million), 13.5% of the total by 2009 - and that’s not including huge ringtone market. But Europe first needs to change its usage-based mobile data tariffs and adopt flat-rate 3G tariffs..."
Sounds like good news to me. Note, though, how digital networks will amalgamate: via the net, via cable, via satellite, via cell phones -- the HOW won't matter but the WHAT will!
o Report: Nearly One Billion DVDs Shipped So Far This Year
Los Angeles -- Nearly one billion DVDs have shipped to retailers this
year, including 340 million shipped in the third quarter -- a 59%
increase over last year -- according to figures compiled by Kaplan,
Swicker & Simha on behalf of industry trade group the Digital
Entertainment Group (DEG). A total of 3.3 billion discs have shipped
since the format's launch in 1997. The report also notes that nearly 110
million DVD players have been sold since the device's launch, and are now
present in 63 million U.S. households; 42% of all U.S. DVD-owning
households now own more than one player. "The unprecedented growth of the
DVD format is a true testament of the partnerships between the hardware,
software and retail industries," said DEG president Bob Chapek. "In the
coming years, those alliances will be put to the ultimate test in
defining the next generation of players. As all of our industries have
learned from the DVD format, these cooperative efforts are the only thing
that will h elp the next generation to grow."
boy - do we have a looooooong way to go with this. Check out these stats that I got from Emarketer (great site, btw) 
... as opposed to mechanicals - again --- ACCCESS WILL REPLACE OWNERSHIP
Check out these facts: how about mobile music in China... the numbers are impressive.
Source: Wireless World Forum, World Factbook
In order of Handsets in Circulation:
China
Handsets in Circulation (million units): 216.2
Mobile Penetration (% of population): 17%
USA
Handsets in Circulation (million units): 159.7
Mobile Penetration (% of population): 55%
Japan
Handsets in Circulation (million units): 91.6
Mobile Penetration (% of population): 72%
Germany
Handsets in Circulation (million units): 54.6
Mobile Penetration (% of population): 66%
Italy
Handsets in Circulation (million units): 46.6
Mobile Penetration (% of population): 80%
UK
Handsets in Circulation (million units): 44.8
Mobile Penetration (% of population): 75%
France
Handsets in Circulation (million units): 36.8
Mobile Penetration (% of population): 61%
South Korea
Handsets in Circulation (million units): 32.1
Mobile Penetration (% of population): 66%
Spain
Handsets in Circulation (million units): 29.9
Mobile Penetration (% of population): 74%
And here's a good story on the record biz in China.....
some very sharp observations on this are here. One of the point is that there are plenty of OTHER THINGS THAN MUSIC that get distributed here. Plus, the costs of p2p are quantified -- first time I have ever seen that done. This link was provided by Boing-Boing
Inside Digital Media just published these numbers for Napster (yes, version 2). very interesting - the growth is impressive, indeed!
September ’04 Quarter = $ 9.0 million (Estimated)
June ’04 Quarter = $ 7.9 million
March ’04 Quarter = $ 6.1 million
December ’03 Quarter = $ 3.6 million
September ’03 Quarter = $ 1.5 million
June ’03 Quarter = $ 0.8 million
some pretty clear stats from this latest intel from emarketer
yahoo / variety. 12% of the total music market to be digital by 2009 --- boy that is a LONG haul if you're in that business!!! Deep pockets and lots of stamina required
www.cdbaby.com is still doing a great job of making money for its members. Hats off to Derek!
