13 posts categorized "Future Watch"
September 12, 2012
July 28, 2012
March 20, 2012
Just found this via Ricoh Europe, in collaboration with The Economist (free PDF download, but requires email registration). This is a definitive MUST READ. Serious intel and stats here, and totally spot-on foresights.
January 14, 2012
New audio / video interview on the future of branding, business and the Internet (incl. some comments on SOPA), via TribeRadio
A few days ago, I did a fairly lengthy and deep skype interview with Toronto-based Marie Germain from Branding 2.0 (see her Twitter channel here), touching on many issues including the future of commerce, selling, marketing and branding, so-called social media (I much prefer the term Social OS), current issues in technology and the Internet (such as SOPA - the deeply disturbing but nevertheless impending U.S. Stop Online Piracy Act), and media / content trends.
There are some quite juicy snippets in this interview, such as:
"In an truly digital society we probably don't need marketing as we know it"
"We are moving from a society, and an economy, based on EGOsystems to a society that is based on ECOsystems (i.e. INTERDEPENDENCE)"
"The old days of commerce were based on handcuffing consumers, now it's all about attraction, engagement and conversations (being a magnet rather than using handcuffs)"
This video uses an interesting format in that it is based on an audio track that was recorded on the phone, and superimposes some related images over it. Interesting. If you just want the audio track, here it is:
From the TribeRadio Youtube post: "World-renown futurist, Gerd Leonhard, in this interview speaks of the very serious challenges businesses and brands face; he offers solutions. On a more sombre note he exposes the ploys of controllers on internet freedom, SOPA to be clear. The Wall Street Journal acknowledges Gerd as one of the leading media futurists in the world. Powerful! Incisive! Gerd is simply delicious to the ears. Keynote Speaker, Founder of The Futures Agency, Advisor to top corporations and governments, author of five books, "The Future of Music", "Music 2.0", "The End of Control", "Friction is Fiction" and "The Future of Content". Gerd's background is in music; however, today he is a top game-changer, inspiring entrepreneurship and guiding us into a prodigious digital world. To reach the Host of Tribe Radio, Marie Germain: at her blog, http://Branding20.wordpress.com or her biz site, http://MarieGermain.com..."
Be sure to check out the other audio / video interviews on here channel as well, including Jeffrey Hayzlett ('Running the Gauntlet' book, former CMO of Kodak).
July 29, 2011
... Looking beyond the obvious:) From Ross' blog-post on this:
Here are a few of the topics we discuss:
* A key role of futurists is to develop and share foresights
* Someone who helps people think about the future to make better decisions today
* To examine and distinguish between trends and uncertainties in order to work out the best path forward
* Clients are interested in having help thinking about things they don’t have time to think about
* It is not a luxury but a necessity to think about the future, but it is useful to get help doing that from people who spend all their time doing that
* Going beyond the obvious is a special skill, but it is also about drawing out the implications of the obvious
* Stepping outside of beliefs and orthodoxies can be more easily done from outside organizations
* While some companies have resident futurists it is highly valuable to bring in people who can be disrespectful and challenge internal thinking
* Being a ‘provocateur’ means provoking not just thoughts but sometimes emotions
December 27, 2010
Download: Toffler: 40 for the Next 40 PDF
Here are some of the key findings that I find most valuable. Read here what FastCompany thinks
May 09, 2010
8 months ago, I was interviewed by the House of Radon people for a movie called PressPausePlay, a really promising film that is presented by Ericsson and is scheduled for release some time later this year. I have embedded the trailer below (yes, it includes my 15 seconds of micro-fame) and really look forward to seeing the whole thing when it's ready.
Kudos to Ericsson for sponsoring a very powerful film about the huge changes in production, distribution and consumption of creative works - this is a crucial topic that is, of course, very close to my own work (see here, here, here and here). Eric Wahlforss (SoundCloud's Founder) is involved, as well, btw.
From the film's web-site: "A new generation of global creators and artists are emerging, equipped with other points of reference and other tools. The teachers arenʼt certiﬁed schools anymore - itʼs web sites, discussion forums and a “learn by doing”-mentality. We see the children of a digital age, unspoiled or uneducated depending on who you ask. Collaboration over hierarchy, digital over analog - a change in the way we produce, distribute and consume creative works. PressPausePlay is the ﬁrst ﬁlm to capture this new ecosystem. We meet the creatives at the frontier of production, the technical enablers of collaboration and distribution, the artists, the pop stars, the film makers, the business men, the visionaries and the ones left behind. Itʼs a story from the smallest molecule to the largest corporation. Itʼs a snapshot of today, but at the same time predictions of a near future.
Weʼre not creating a documentary in the classical sense of shaky cameras, bad lighting and unbearable sound. Although we have a small budget, we got big aspirations. The ﬁlm will in itself be a proof of the evolution story weʼre telling, shot in digital 4K and ﬁnished at the end of 2010. Ready for both the big (cinema) and the small (mobile) screen. We will release rough edits and interviews as well as the ﬁnal ﬁlm free for anyone to use, broadcast and distribute. PressPausePlay will be an observation, a testimony and a tribute"
Don't miss this film.
January 06, 2010
Fellow mobilist and DotOpen Founder Rudy de Waele has drummed up some great predictions, bottom-lines and other assorted wisdoms from 20+ really great people (including myself...for some odd reason; in any case I am really delighted to be asked to contribute - thanks Rudy!), asking us to provide input on out top 5 mobile trends for the next decade.
This effort produced a very nice slideshow that really packs a punch, see below. It includes some serious nuggets of wisdom from people such as Howard Rheingold, Douglas Rushkoff, Marshall Kirkpatrick, Gerd Leonhard, Timo Arnall, Carlo Longino, Katrin Verclas, Atau Tanaka, Alan Moore, Marek Pawloski, Ajit Jaokar, Nicolas Nova, Inma Martinez, Tony Fish, Jonathan MacDonald, Willem Boijens, Carlos Domingo, Russ McGuire, Raimo van der Klein, Michael Breidenbruecker, Robert Rice, Steve O’Hear, Ted Morgan, Martin Duval, Andreas Constantinou, Fabien Girardin, Matthäus Krzykowski, Rich Wong, Andy Abramson, Ilja Laurs, David Wood, Stefan Constantinescu, Henri Moissinac, Kevin C. Tofel, Enrique C. Ortiz, Felix Petersen, Tom Hume...
Here is my stuff, excerpted (from slide #9)
1. Mobile advertising will surpass the decidedly outmoded Web1.0 & computer-centric advertising - and ads will become content, almost entirely. Advertisers will, within 2-5 years, massively convert to mobile, location-aware, targeted, opt-ed-in, social and user-distributed 'ads'; from 1% of their their budgets to at least 1/3 of their total advertising budget. Advertising becomes 'ContVertising' - and Google's revenues will be 10x of what they are today, in 5 years, driven by mobile, and by video.
2. Tablet devices will become the way many of us will 'read' magazines, books, newspapers and even 'attend' live concerts, conferences and events. The much-speculated Apple iPad will kick this off but every major device maker will copy their new tablet within 18 months. In addition, tablets will kick off the era of mobile augmented reality. This will be a huge boon to the content industries, worldwide - but only if they can drop their mad content protection schemes, and slash the prices in return for a much larger user base.
3. Many makers of simple smart phones - probably starting with Nokia- will make their devices available for free - but will take a small cut (similar to the current credit-cards) from all transactions that are done through the devices, e.g. banking, small purchases, on-demand content etc. Mobile phones become wallets, banks and ATMs.
4. Quite a few mobile phones will not run on any particular networks, i.e. without [I mean unlocked] SIM cards. The likes of Google (Nexus), and maybe Skype, LG or Amazon will offer mobile phones that [may eventually] will work only on Wifi / WiMax, LTE or mashed-access networks, and will offer more or less free calls. This will finally wake up the mobile network operators, and force them to really move up the food-chain - into content and the provision of 'experiences'
5. Content will be bundled into mobile service contracts, starting with music, i.e. once your mobile phone / computer is online, much of the use of the content (downloaded or streamed) will be included. Bundles and flat-rates - many of them Advertising 2.0-supported - will become the primary way of consuming, and interacting with content. First music, then books, new and magazines, then film & TV.
September 07, 2009
Don Tapscott: Anybody that thinks we come out of this recession and get back to business as usual is deeply mistaken
Don Tapscott (whose voice eerily reminds me of Marshall McLuhan) is one of my favorite writers and thinkers. As part of the really cool 'Penny for your Thoughts'(PFYT) series, the FreedomLab people have just published a great video with Don's comments on what's really happening in this economic crisis - the headline is "Re-Industrialize the Planet". A quick summary:
- The web is creating a global infrastructure for collaboration (which leads to disruption and confusion)
- As a result, all of our institutions have come to the end of their life-cycle
- The current recession is a crucial punctuation point in human history - the point where we said that we need to reset, the point where the industrial economy has finally run out of gas
- This paradigm shift is creating a crisis of leadership
- The Digital Natives are inheriting this situation - and they think very differently
- Kids are now the authority on many issues
- We have 40 years to re-industrialize the planet
March 30, 2009
I just started this exciting new Video Show with my friend and fellow Futurist Glen Hiemstra (Futurist.com), in Seattle, Washington. We will be recording a new episode every week, on a current topic. The shows will be between 5 and 10 minutes long, and we will try to get to the bottom lines as quickly as possible, giving each topic a quick futuristic angle (whatever that means;)
Glen and me have collaborated many times before, including the Futuretalk podcast & video series, and DVD (feel free to download the whole thing via Mininova, if you're interested). We also do think-tanks together - feel free to ping us if you're interested.
We are currently using Skype video recording and it works ok, but there is apparently no way to get better backgrounds integrated into the actual recording, quite yet - so if you have any better idea, please let us know. We are both Mac users, so we tried iChat which was cool - clouds and orbits in the background - but we could not get the audio to sync reasonably well with the video once we started recording (using Screenflow or Screentoaster) - not so good!
March 10, 2009
This video provides a nice summary of some of the key computing and communication developments that we can expect in the near future. Whether MSFT will be a big part of that... who knows, but they did a great job with these videos; be sure to check MSFT Officelab's other cool stuff, here, as well - quite impressive, I think.
January 20, 2009
David Smith is the CEO of the Global Futures Forum, and I was delighted to be able to have him join me at the MidemNet Future Scenarios event here in Cannes, France, along with the brilliant and snappy Mark "Herdmeister" Earls (will add his slides here, shortly, too). David did a great job presenting the key future trends to the MIDEM audience - here is the PDF! Enjoy.
Download David Smith - www.thegff.com - MidemNet 2009
October 01, 2008
Now if this doesn't make you think I don't know what does: YouTube - SekaiCameraDemoVideo of TechCrunch50. From TonchiDot of Tokyo / Japan, this is a demo video for SekaiCamera. I found this via AFPR and Friendfeed. "Sekai Camera (World Camera in Japanese) is an iPhone-exclusive social tagging service developed by Tokyo-based mobile application provider Tonchidot that recently Demo'd their product at TechCrunch TC50. This video is a MUST SEE for anyone wanted to get a glimpse of their near (Mobile) future. In the video, their CEO, Takahito Iguchi delivers a presentation for the ages - garnishing a standing ovation for this crowd favorite at the end..."