Gerd Leonhard: Conteúdo 2.0: ‘proteção’ está no modelo de negócio
(Content 2.0: protection is in the business model) e não na tecnologia
(pensamentos sobre o futuro da venda de conteúdo).
Abastecido pelas agitações na indústria da música e, finalmente, com a
transformação muito rápida dos livros para o formato digital, há
bastante debate em torno do fato das pessoas compartilharem
habitualmente isto é, redistribuírem conteúdo digital sem que os
usuários paguem por isso. Como se pode monetizar o conteúdo se a cópia é gratuita? Essa
pergunta é uma questão chave em todos os sentidos, seja com a música,
com livros digitais, noticiários, editoração, TV ou filmes.
Há o medo, claro, de que a partir do momento que um item digital foi
comprado por uma pessoa, ele pode ser facilmente encaminhado para
qualquer um se estiver num formato aberto, assim reduzindo
significantemente a possibilidade de que outra pessoa pague dinheiro
real por ele também (claro que o mesmo também é verídico para conteúdo
digital supostamente trancado ou protegido – só demora um pouco mais). Não ter mais controle sobre a distribuição = não ter mais dinheiro. Certo?
I just received this nice PDF-version (excerpt) of the LfM Digital Magazine from the LfM Digital people in Cologne, Germany. I am interviewed by Sebastian Lehr / Goldmedia, on the topic of the future of social media. This is in GERMAN language.
Here are the best snippets from Roger's review (and the rest of it is a good overview, as well!)
By Roger Tagholm
"Access not ownership, relationships not transactions and concerns over who owns the channel to market – these were some of the themes of the second World E-Reading Congress which began in London on Monday. Once again, organizers Terrapin had assembled a powerful line-up of speakers who provided a one-stop take on what is happening in the digital space. From “haptic technology” (from the Greek Haptikos, “pertaining to the sense of touch”) to “lean back” readers, this was also the place to get a jargon update and phrase fix.
The View from a Futurist
Media Futurist Gerd Leonhard kicked things off. He believes the debate will soon be about access, not ownership and said that “for those over 30 it’s very hard to understand this switch. There will be some ownership, but it won’t grow. With music, iTunes sales are flat, but streaming is growing. It will happen with books. A Spotify for books will come. If a student wants 300 books, he’ll buy a three-year subscription”. Small examples of that already exist, but Leonhard means on a mass scale, such as that being contemplated in Brazil “where the government is looking to buy 100 million devices for students so they don’t have to buy the physical books”.
He believes there is more to the future than walled gardens and that “humans need meaning, not just cool technology. In the end, meaning is money. Apple has meaning, even though it is a totally walled garden — an oligopoly, a cult.” During the next three to five years he thinks we will see telemedia convergence. “The telecoms industry will realize that it will have to make deals with ISP operators to sell content — so that if you buy this SIM card, for example, you can get ten books.
“For the consumer, access to content will become much cheaper. We cannot force the consumer to pay the same for digital as physical. Technology owners reads more, so why penalize them? We need to innovate now to keep them.”
Sharing, he maintained, should be “non-negotiable. Sharing does not create economic damage.” Publishers must engage with their customers; attitudes to piracy must be rethought (“piracy happens when motivation meets opportunity”); and publishers must build value around content “because payment works if the context is right — if there is a reason, people will pay.”
Added note: "Duncan Edwards, President and CEO of Hearst Magazines International, took an entirely different view on pricing. “We have discovered that, because of the ease of use, people are prepared to pay as much — or even more — for the digital versions of our magazines.”
Really? Not sure that maybe that have just discovered their own desire to get as much as before, and found some willing fans - rest assured, this won't last. Look at iTunes and the music industry:) People will not continue to buy songs for €1 every time they are interested. Unsustainable, imho:=)
"At the Spot music conference in Århus, Denmark, musician and futurist Gerd Leonard discussed a series of possible futures for the music business. Leonhard isn't a fan of how the record industry has been run over the last decade or so. "The whole economy of music is based on big companies owning the rights. It's unsustainable," he said, comparing the major record labels to big oil companies.
"Do big oil companies represent nature?" he asked. "Of course not. Do the big record labels represent music? Probably not." Leonhard sketched out the reasons why people pirate music, blaming high costs and a lack of legal alternatives, and he also argued that cracking down on filesharing doesn't benefit artists. "We had 52,000 people sued in Europe over copyright infringement," he said. "That earned nothing for the artists. Only the lawyers."
But Leonhard is optimistic, arguing that music is simply migrating into something larger. "The business model of merely selling 'copies' of music is over," he said. "Let's redefine the meaning of selling. No-one knows what it means." Leonhard is a firm believer in the power of access models over ownership ones. Models where you pay a small recurring subscription fee to gain access to an enormous jukebox in the sky, just like Spotify (which he says he's a big fan of).
Leonhard claims that it would only require each person in Europe to pay two euros each month to generate revenues larger than the global music industry. That's not necessarily a practical thing to demand individuals to do, but companies have begun to roll subscriptions of this nature into other products, making this music tax more palatable. Telecoms providers have begun to bundle music subscriptions into their contracts, which is a way of making music "feel like free" to the consumer.
But that's not quite enough, he said, projecting a list of hundreds of legal music services from across the world onto a screen, compiled by the International Federation of the Phonographic Industry (IFPI). He claimed that most of them are dead or dying: "90 percent of the legal music services are bankrupt, or there but sorta not doing anything," he said.
To fix this, compulsory licenses, like radio licenses, are needed. "The free markets won't fix this problem. They won't work. We need must-license provisions, public oversight, regulation for the common good," Leonhard said."In 2017, we'll have five billion connected devices," says Leonhard. "75 percent of that will be mobile, accessing 50 or so platforms of content, sharing a €250 billion ad market."
To capitalise on that potential, Leonhard says, music companies are already diversifying beyond simply selling records. Labels have begun taking a chunk of all sorts of revenues -- merchandise, touring, premium content, sync licensing (getting music on television, and in adverts and movies) and other sources. "We're going to make money in 50 different ways. The first music business was a grand illusion."
Ok... so far so good. There are 2 things you may want to look at in this context:
Gerd Leonhard has been dubbed "one of the leading Media Futurists in the World" by The Wall Street Journal. He is the co-author of the 'The Future of Music Music2.0' and 'The End of Control'. He is the keynote speaker at the Commerce Commission conference The Future with High Speed Broadband: Opportunities for New Zealand. Play (Windows) Play (Other)
MPI magazine just published a nice piece about my work, here. Some snippets:
"...he collects data from all manner of sources, talks to as many experts as possible, understands the whole context of what is happening in a given field and then articulates how trends will most probably move over the next three to five years. He says his ideas are often things people are already aware of but they either haven’t had the chance to crystallize the new focus in their own heads or haven’t taken appropriate action in their operations.
Working with the common threads that tie adult education, travel and event planning together, Leonhard shared his thoughts on the futures of these industries. For meetings among far-flung colleagues and education, he sees rising Internet technologies, with high-speed connections, 3D monitors and augmented reality tools making virtual gatherings more feasible. This will be especially true as travel costs rise. Businesses and students think twice about the cost of travel to particular locations for a meeting or education, so in many cases, the virtual meeting room or classroom will trump the brick and mortar kind.
But there is something technology will not be able to replace: human connection. “Any digital interaction creates the need for the live face-to-face interaction,” Leonhard says. “It doesn’t replace it.”
For instance, in regard to the learning process, he points out that it isn’t merely about information gathering; conversations with peers and teachers help people digest and fully comprehend all the information given to them. The need for social interaction, while at the same time saving costs, poses a conundrum for education and meetings. But it provides an opening for planners to exploit: They have to up the ante, specifically in terms of content quality, venues, food—the entire experience. “If the experience isn’t good enough, people will just stay at home and watch TED.com,” Leonhard said.
...as a futurist, Leonhard has to keep up with always-on sources such as Facebook, Twitter and Flipboard that spew out prodigious amounts of data all the time. One of the necessary prerequisites of his job is the ability not to be overwhelmed by never-ending data and to know exactly which sources of information need to be studied.
“It’s like cooking—you can’t use all spices at once,” he says, “you can only use some!”
As for his own future, Leonhard has big plans. He’s casting himself as a “green futurist” and moving into sustainability and environmental issues. He is also looking to launch a TV show where he says he will host discussions on “future issues in a way that will interest everyone, not just geeks or intellectuals" Fully embracing the life of a futurist, a role he absorbed a mere six years ago, you can’t help but believe him when he says, “What I do for a living is fun!..."
According to leading music futurist Gerd Leonhard, such diverse approaches are just the start of the “complete fragmentation of the music format”. With the convergence of audio, video, graphics and gaming via the net, he predicts the album will soon be eclipsed by the music ‘experience’, embodied in any combination of apps, interactive videos, augmented reality apps or a 3D television concert using interactive controllers like Microsoft’s Kinect. “We’re going back to the understanding that playing music is about an experience, not about a download for the cheapest possible price,” he explains. ”With apps and websites and 3D, I’m given an interface which makes it easier to immerse myself in the experience… You can’t copy that. If you can get immersion from your fans, you have their wallet.”
Gerd Leonhard, media futurist and CEO at The Futures Agency, opened up the general session at the FPA Business Solutions 2011 conference in Boston yesterday to a packed room of advisors. His message: Dive in to social media. ‘Faster Horses’ Leonhard started his presentation by explaining if Henry Ford had asked people what they wanted, they would have said, “faster horses,” because they didn’t know there was something completely different and better. It was a thought-provoking comment, setting the stage for his views on the future of businesses, technology and how advisor business will be impacted. Why Networks Are Important Leonhard showed how companies like Texas Instruments used to be known for calculators, but not anymore. Today it has adapted and individuals can just download the app. Another change is that customers now have more power than they did before. For example, individuals can use Kayak and other services travel agents would only have had. What has changed is that there used to be broadcasters sending out information. Now it is about being a network. Successful companies like Amazon and Google connect people. “They are ecosystems.”
Leonhard proved his point by asking, “Why would you connect your Facebook account to Amazon?” He then explained how Amazon was able to cross reference individuals in one’s network to see what others are reading. “It resulted in a 13% increase in one sweep,” Leonhard shared. Although the United States has leading companies, “America has fallen a bit behind on mobile [usage], but the country is catching up,” stated Leonhard. When it comes to falling behind the times, the music industry is a perfect example. From $14.6 billion in 1999 to $6.3 billion in 2009, it has seen a 71% decline. Conversely, Leonhard gave the movie industry as an example of adapting, with a company like Netflix doing it right. More Fragmentation Social media is shifting from social conversation to social commerce. Leonhard said, “It’s not a better mouse trap, it’s a whole new logic.” I Love Lucy used to pull in a huge percentage of the country’s TV viewership, now American Idol, the biggest show, only captures 4% of Americans, because today people have so many more options. Leonhard advised, “Expect more fragmentation.” Leonhard is certain that disruption is something businesses will have to face. The only question is whether they do the disrupting themselves. Case in point, look what Craigslist did, taking all the business from traditional classifieds. Opportunity For Advisors A crazy amount of information is being put on the Internet. For example, 26 million photos are uploaded to Flickr every day. People are publishing more and more information, which can result in just noise. “A connected world can be noisy. The noisier the world gets, the more everyone will need better filters,” Leonhard said. The overload of information actually presents an opportunity for advisors to play the role of disseminating what is the most important and relevant in a timely manner. “Your job is to filter the ocean of information. Your clients don’t have time to go through it all.” “Add transparency. Declare what you are doing. Trust is crucial,” he recommended.
Leonhard encouraged advisors to become active with social media if they are not already. “Anticipate what is on the horizon,” he said. “What is coming up next?” For example, some see newspapers dying, but what about e-mail? He shared that 75% of kids in Brazil have not seen a book, they use their mobile device. To push the envelope, he showed a video of an Audi that drives itself. Ask These Questions Leonhard said the key questions are, “Why are you in business, what do you do, and how do you do it? We are living in a knowledge economy. We are no longer living in an economy of stuff. So how do people use the knowledge? Are [advisors] people of the paper? [If so, are they] working with people of the screen?” Real-time Engagements People don’t want to wait anymore. “Think about now-ness. They are not interested in last year’s info. What is happening today?” He gave this example to illustrate his point: If you want to know the best place to get sushi in New York City, do you look online at reviews that could be two years old, or do you search Twitter and find reviews from people that are probably still at the restaurant?
Ideas For Advisors When it comes to deciding how to use social media, Leonhard said, “It depends where your clients are.” It is easy to see the huge amount of stuff on YouTube, Leonard said, and he told advisors to “sit down with a flip camera and get started. There are two billion videos watched per day on YouTube. If you don’t have videos, start doing them!” When it comes to the importance of being on social networks, Leonhard shared, “Facebook is the biggest broadcaster in the world. Every fifth minute on the Internet is spent on Facebook ... You can run ads on Facebook and they are very efficient.”....
"One of the most important trends is the transformation from a Copy Economy to Access Economy. Traditionally media business models have been based on selling copies of content: A printed newspaper, a book, a DVD, a music record, even a digital copy of a song. That model is about to disappear, claims Leonhard. He compares Internet to a giant copy machine. Selling “copies” is a model of the past. Instead the entire world shifts to a world of access. If you are in the media industry you better get used to this. It is a whole new industry...." Read more.
Source: AMEInfo (thanks!): 'Data is the new Oil' according to Media Futurist Gerd Leonhard who explains the concept to Phil Blizzard during a discussion on media innovations. The CEO of the Switzerland-based Futures Agency also talks about the need for creating networked societies, social engagement and creation of tribes in order to survive online. Note: this is where I found this powerful meme.
This is a nice, short video (8 Min 20 sec) that was recorded right before my presentation at ICTQatar, in Doha, on December 6, 2010. I cover various topics including what a futurist actually does, what my new company, The Futures Agency, does, where the music industry is going, what is happening as far as privacy is concerned, my thoughs on digital content piracy, and much more.
Here is a video interview with me, recorded at one of the nicest hotels I have ever been at, the fabulous Lydmar in Stockholm (in September 2010). Sounds Like Branding presents Heartbeats In Conversation With, a series of short conversations on relevant topics for marketing and communication; first out is a conversation between Heartbeats’ CEO Jakob Lusensky and me. The video is subtitled (in English) because the background noise is fairly loud (sorry about that). Jakob and me covered quite a few topics here, from the rise of the connected, digital, mobile economy, the future of advertising and the current status of the advertising industry, to the shift from buying copies of content to just having access to media as a service, and the future of TV.