Access to music - i.e. a simple click-to-play, anywhere, anytime, anything - is replacing ownership. This trend will quickly accelerate due to the massive global build-up in cheap wireless broadband connectivity, leading us swiftly to the point where listening to a song will be exactly the same as downloading it (at least in practical terms, from the users' perspective). Some of us would argue that this is already the case, of course, but in terms of mass-scale user adoption I would say we are about 18 months away from the pivot point in the so-called developing countries.
The music industry needs to urgently get ready for this: sell access not (just) copies. Bundle. Package. Develop those new generatives. "When copies are free you need to sell things that can't be copied" (Kevin Kelly, The Technium).
Another important trend to embrace is the move to mobile devices that will pretty much replace the computer as primary access point to the Internet i.e. to all digital content. Mobile applications for smart-phones will take the place of sound-carriers; music will be sold as/in/via/with software. Read how Pandora is doing this, in the U.S.
Very soon, a majority of people around the world will no longer connect to the Internet via desktop computers tethered to cables, or notebooks 'tethered' to WLAN boxes. Instead they will use their mobile devices (fka 'phones'). These experiences will be personalized, custom-made, location-aware, timely, interdependent, social, contextual and most importantly, 100% under the users' control.
In many developing countries, the first browsing experiences will be via mobile applications or mobile browsers. This is a huge shift for marketers, brands, content owners and ecommerce companies. Check out my recent presentations on Mobile Marketing and Mobile Content (both were held @ CommunicAsia 2009)
Thanks to Arjan at FreedomLab in Amsterdam I disvovered the coolest Twitter widget today: Twitterfountain.This widget allows you to animate the latest tweets on any keyword, user or hashtag, and overlay them on top of Flickr images based on any other keyword or tag. You can adjust the settings (size, speed etc) as you see fit. Very cool indeed. Mashup heaven. Note: you may have to give it a few minutes to get cooking (right below!)... Want more?
The State of the Mobile Marketing Industry and beyond: Consumer
generated content, social networking, online on-demand video,
engagement and the death of television as we know it - The velocity of
change only seems to be increasing. Zenith Optimedia estimates online
advertising spending will grow 8.6% in 2009, reaching $54.3 billion by
the end of the year, even as the overall market slumps by 6.9%, as
marketers increasingly leverage digital media and technology platforms
to establish a dialog with their customers, optimize messaging and
delivery and, ultimately, drive brand preference. How will the
looming recession impact on media and advertising? Will digital media
suffer along with other platforms or might our industry benefit from
these tough times as marketers shift a disproportionate amount of
spending to performance-based marketing channels?
I just ran across some nice research from Nielsen called the Global Online Media Landscape - download their free PDF - (yes, I know, it's from April 2009... so I am a bit late to the party...sorry) shows that as of February 2009 the use of eMail is paralled by the use of social networks as far as the frequency of communication is concerned; so-called member communities and social networks are now an equally preferred method of conversation. This trend will continue and I predict that eMail will remain popular mostly for business communications but will otherwise decline drastically, within the next 3 years. I kind of pointed in this direction in a blog post in October 2008 "eMail is for old people'. Now just wait until the Google Wave hits!
While we pay attention to great, personalized, contextual and relevant content, brands want to reach us via that content, and via the CONVERSATION, the social context, around that content. This opportunity will drastically expand due to the explosive rise of the mobile Internet and the advent of ubiquitous smart phones, globally, but the quickest opportunities will be in Asia, no doubt (where many local cultures are already build around a much more mobile and always-on lifestyle than in Europe or the US). Content will be offered 'for free' in return for paying attention to brands, advertisers and sponsors, primarily via mobile applications (branded or in-app advertised) as well as via the browser. Stay tuned via www.twitter.com/gleonhard or Facebook
It feels like things are moving increasingly fast now - the global economic crisis has either really catalyzed people and companies into action, or it has completely paralyzed them; but there is no way to stay neutral. On my end, I am certainly seeing a lot more demand for the development of immediate (2-3 years) future scenarios than ever before - guess that's a good thing!
A new kind of currency is developing, and it's based on how connected, appreciated, vetted & verified and available you are. This can be expressed in a myriad of ways, including via the number of links that you are getting, the amount of followers and retweets you are getting (however superficial that may seem, at this early stage), the number of people that subscribe to your blog feed, and if you run a network, how many companies are building your business on-top of yours (i.e. via the use of APIs). Of course, beyond that rather primitive approach of pure volume and easily trackable stats lurks the much tougher question of real meaning, context, merit and quality, i.e. it is really the quality of every single node in your network is what matters, not just their sheer number.
While this Link Economy (see Jeff Jarvis) is, of course, not new, it is certainly getting a real boost from the likes of Twitter and Friendfeed where it appears that good links do matter a lot, and some Twitter search results now often trump good old Google search results. This "you are what you share" mantra is, of course, just one expression of the Web'whatever.0' principle of "success is the result of adding value not extracting value"; and clearly those that add the most value now get the most mentions i.e. links or retweets etc.
If this feels a bit like some kind of race to you I can definitely sympathise but would venture to say that we will see the normalization of this process within the next 9-12 months, just like we did with SEO which is now a pretty well-established routine and feels less like a constant race.
Another important point has been raised by Umair Hague several times in the last few months (and yes, I have been busy applying the 'Proudly Found Elsewhere' principles to his blog posts;), and that is the fact that we seem to be moving into an Interdependent Ecosystem, and away from what I like call the traditional EGOsystem.
In the Content & Media and TIME sectors it will simply no longer work to focus on driving revenues and profits just for oneself, and based only on one's own assets and capabilities. Instead, in the future, revenue streams will need to be discovered, invented, generated, nurtured and maintained in collaboration with other key players in the Ecosystem. This is a key point for me: we won't have recurring and scalable new generatives in the content business unless we all help to build them, in the first place. There IS no model we can apply, yet, there is no set way to cook this dish, there are no charts to play off - t
The 3-minute daily AdAge video shows always provide some interesting morsels. In this short excerpt, below, Jason Kilar (Hulu's CEO) says: "We don't have a marketing department because
if our product isn't going to sell itself on its own merits we've got
bigger problems". This is very much how I look at the role of Marketing, going forward, as well. My 4 cents on this topic:
Design the marketing right into your product or service, from the get-go - if people will not want to share what you are offering, that's where you need to start!
Instead of paying to grab people's attention (which usually means disrupting them, several times), invest in your product to be so attractive, or better yet, addictive, that your users will promote it for you. Word of MOUTH and word of MOUSE is what will drive your success more than anything else, so that's where every cent is well spend
Once a good many people are using your product or service, enable and encourage them to share all that goodness with their friends and peers (great examples for that include Nike+ and the recent T-Mobile Life's for Sharing campaign); put 'share this' and 'tell your friends' links and widgets everywhere, and integrate things like Facebook Connect, Google Connect and Twitter.
The best way to activate your users as voluntary brand-messengers is to allow them to co-create, to engage, to get involved - and of course, to talk to them, to build relationships. This is the key to Twitter's rapid growth.
I have run across the sponsored conversations concept via Josh Bernoff and via Techdirt's Mike Masnick before (see Techdirt's sponsored conversation example here), and found it very interesting yet a little hard to align with a more 'seriously independent' blogging approach. I am not sure that I would personally want to engage in having my blog or my tweets sponsored by someone that wants to reach my readers or 'followers' (and yes... there have been offers), but I still like the concept and will investigate it further. It seems like there is a nice package to be made with good old Word of Mouth, web-native Word of Mouse, and Sponsored Conversation - or what do you think?
This is from the Picnic Conference blog, taken from a telephone interview with me, last week. Please note that I am firm believer that there is NO COOKBOOK for success in social media (whatever that means!), at least as far as I can tell. And there is no certainly not a definitive correlation between your mere numbers of followers or friends, and the quality or merit of your work. We are still very much in the very first, embryonic phase of social media marketing (and the related personal branding options), and it would be very premature to equal success in numbers with success in business or even any real degree of influence. I am experimenting with this just as much as everyone else... so, read this below, in that spirit!
Btw - the Picnic conference in Amsterdam (Sept 23-25, 2009) will be well worth attending (and not just because I'll be speaking ;). Last year's event was thoroughly entertaining as well as inspirational, if sometimes a bit overwhelming due to the sheer number of topics and attendees. Check out my 2008 Picnic presentation on The New Music Ecosystem, here.
"Last Friday, the team
at PICNIC had the opportunity to pick Gerd Leonhard’s brain about
social media marketing and what has made him successful. Gerd is a
well-known media futurist and a regular PICNIC participant. He travels
the world speaking about the future of media, content, technology,
communication, business and entertainment.
In less than six months Gerd accumulated over 5000 followers on
Twitter and his website traffic [and RSS feed users] increased by 300% (60% of which comes
from Twitter). As a result he decided to completely stop communicating
with his 17,000-strong database by email and his business has continued
to thrive. It was a pleasure to chat with Gerd on the subject of social
media marketing and we are excited to share some of his top tips with
you.
Pull, don’t push: Get people’s attention by
providing value and earn their love by engaging with them. This will
naturally lead to increased website traffic and increased sales.
Getting started
Choose a plausible position and objectives you want to achieve
Find out where your target audience is, i.e. Twitter, LinkedIn, Facebook, YouTube…
Listen to others and decide carefully who you want to follow and get feedback from
Track replies and keywords to help you actively participate in the conversation
Set up multiple accounts if necessary (by topic, employee, etc)
Building momentum
Jump in: don’t be afraid to start, there is no right or wrong way to use social media for marketing
Provide value: link to content on your website or blog like videos,
slideshows, tips, interviews; provide useful resources from other
sites; don’t be afraid to re-package existing content by putting a new
spin on the story.
Avoid sales pitches: but do offer special offers or rewards to members of your network
Participate: develop conversations with members of your network; ask for feedback or advice
Be transparent: people will feel more connected with your brand when they know what is going on behind the scenes
Establish yourself as a thought leader or authority: dialogue with the right people
Measuring success
Social media marketing is not a replacement for other marketing
tactics. Success with social media tools requires time and effort, not
money. Success has to be defined by the individual or company.
The number of followers or members is important, but not the only
measurement of success. You can also track traffic to your website
generated by social media sites, number of RSS subscribers, and
increase in comments or leads.
On Tuesday March 5 09 I was invited to hold the Leaders Lecture at the inaugural eCom Berlin event; on Wednesday March 6 I had the pleasure of delivering the closing keynote on "The Future of Retail".
Here is are PDFs, below (provided under the Creative Commons Non-Commercial, Attribution License, as usual)
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