A message from Gerd: this site will no longer be updated - please visit me at www.futuristgerd.com instead

Social Bookmarking Sharing Button   TheFuturesAgency Social Bookmarking Sharing Button  Share This Social Bookmarking Sharing Button  RSS
Header 1

13 posts categorized "OTT"

September 04, 2012

PDFs and resources from today's webinar on The Future of Television (with Stowe Boyd)

In case you missed our webinar on SocialTV and the Future of Television, today (shame on you;): the video will go live in a few hours (assuming the recording actually worked) on my Youtube Webinars playlist.

And here are the slides we used (creative commons non-commercial, attribution licensed, as usual):
Gerd, Stowe   as well as the reports we referenced (subject to different licenses):  Ericsson: Getting Social on TV  Google: The new multi-screen world, and Stowe's Social TV report.

UPDATE: Here is the video

 

  • Future of TV Gerd Leonhard Futurist.001
  • Future of TV Gerd Leonhard Futurist.002
  • Future of TV Gerd Leonhard Futurist.003
  • Future of TV Gerd Leonhard Futurist.004
  • Future of TV Gerd Leonhard Futurist.005
  • Future of TV Gerd Leonhard Futurist.006
  • Future of TV Gerd Leonhard Futurist.007
  • Future of TV Gerd Leonhard Futurist.008
  • Future of TV Gerd Leonhard Futurist.009
  • Future of TV Gerd Leonhard Futurist.010
Future of TV Gerd Leonhard Futurist.010

 

 

Enjoy and share:))

August 23, 2012

Free webinar on September 4, 2012: Future of Television: Social, Mobile, Over-the-top...? (Stowe Boyd and Gerd Leonhard)

Please join me for this unique event (there is no charge except for your attention:)

The Future of Television: Social, Mobile, Over-the-top? With Stowe Boyd and Gerd Leonhard (The Futures Agency) on Sep 4, 2012 5:00 PM CEST

Social web strategist, speaker and blogger Stowe Boyd and futurist, speaker & author Gerd Leonhard are delighted to present this 60-minute, free webinar based on a white paper jointly developed by Stowe Boyd and TheFuturesAgency entitled 'social TV and the second screen'.

image from 29.media.tumblr.comYou can read more about here  (and download it via the link or directly, here )

"The overlap of social media and TV represents a huge opportunity for those that truly understand and internalize, embrace and partake in these changes, and that welcome this dawning networked, interdependent and many-to-many society"

Stowe and Gerd will briefly present some select slides and updates on the topic of the future of television (10-15 minutes each), followed by a Q&A session with the participants.

The emphasis of this event is on allowing plenty of time for questions and discussion; both via chat as well as via audio (upon individual invitation only).

THIS EVENT IS LIMITED TO 100 PARTICIPANTS. Please sign up early and be sure to show up at least 30 minute prior to the starting time to avoid disappointment.

Stowe and Gerd are both members of The Futures Agency network and often work together holding seminars and think-tank events for media and technology companies, around the globe see http://www.thefuturesagency.com/about

Find our more about Stowe Boyd
http://worktalk.ly/about_stowe/
https://twitter.com/stoweboyd/
http://www.thefuturesagency.com/stoweb

Find our more about Gerd Leonhard:
http://www.thefuturesagency.com/gerd
http://www.gerdfuturist.com
Blog: http://www.mediafuturist.com/
Mobile apps: http://road.ie/futurist
The Future of Business blog http://www.futureof.biz/
Videos: http://www.youtube.com/gleonhard
Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/gleonhard
More links: http://about.me/mediafuturist


After registering, you will receive a confirmation email containing information about joining the webinar.

See you there:)

 

  • 0422_future_tv-625x261
  • Smartphone_tv
  • Woman with social tv
  • Cloudevision not television gleonhard
  • TV2 adding webd gerd pics
TV2 adding webd gerd pics

 


 

May 17, 2012

Words of Wisdom from the World E-Reading Congress 2012 (good review of my talk and preso)

World-E-Reading-Congress-2012-logo-final-300x96Roger Tagholm at Publishing Perspectives just published a nice review of the World eReading Congress in London, on Tuesday, where I had the pleasure of doing the opening keynote. The 6MB low-res PDF can be downloaded via this link:  Download Ereading congress london gerd Leonhard (note: this is quick version, better resolution soon on Slideshare).

Here are the best snippets from Roger's review (and the rest of it is a good overview, as well!)

By Roger Tagholm

"Access not ownership, relationships not transactions and concerns over who owns the channel to market – these were some of the themes of the second World E-Reading Congress which began in London on Monday. Once again, organizers Terrapin had assembled a powerful line-up of speakers who provided a one-stop take on what is happening in the digital space. From “haptic technology” (from the Greek Haptikos, “pertaining to the sense of touch”) to “lean back” readers, this was also the place to get a jargon update and phrase fix.

The View from a Futurist

Media Futurist Gerd Leonhard kicked things off. He believes the debate will soon be about access, not ownership and said that “for those over 30 it’s very hard to understand this switch. There will be some ownership, but it won’t grow. With music, iTunes sales are flat, but streaming is growing. It will happen with books. A Spotify for books will come.  If a student wants 300 books, he’ll buy a three-year subscription”. Small examples of that already exist, but Leonhard means on a mass scale, such as that being contemplated in Brazil “where the government is looking to buy 100 million devices for students so they don’t have to buy the physical books”.

He believes there is more to the future than walled gardens and that “humans need meaning, not just cool technology. In the end, meaning is money.  Apple has meaning, even though it is a totally walled garden — an oligopoly, a cult.” During the next three to five years he thinks we will see telemedia convergence. “The telecoms industry will realize that it will have to make deals with ISP operators to sell content — so that if you buy this SIM card, for example, you can get ten books.

“For the consumer, access to content will become much cheaper. We cannot force the consumer to pay the same for digital as physical. Technology owners reads more, so why penalize them? We need to innovate now to keep them.”

Sharing, he maintained, should be “non-negotiable. Sharing does not create economic damage.” Publishers must engage with their customers; attitudes to piracy must be rethought (“piracy happens when motivation meets opportunity”); and publishers must build value around content “because payment works if the context is right — if there is a reason, people will pay.”

Added note:  "Duncan Edwards, President and CEO of Hearst Magazines International, took an entirely different view on pricing. “We have discovered that, because of the ease of use, people are prepared to pay as much — or even more — for the digital versions of our magazines.”

Really?  Not sure that maybe that have just discovered their own desire to get as much as before, and found some willing fans - rest assured, this won't last.  Look at iTunes and the music industry:)  People will not continue to buy songs for €1 every time they are interested.  Unsustainable, imho:=)

May 04, 2012

My most popular video on Youtube: Music Like Water (Ericsson 2020 Shaping Ideas)

Check it out.  Thanks to Ericsson for the nice production work.

See more videos at http://www.ericsson.com/campaign/20about2020/.

"Music used to be a product that we bought piece by piece. Now it is becoming a public utility, says media futurist Gerd Leonhard, who argues that we will soon be constantly connected to an infinite library of songs. And when music is like water or electricity, our friends become the new music critics..."

 

 

April 12, 2012

Cloud-based music streaming trends: told you so!

From a new eMarketer post (and related report), here are some interesting snippets:

"In a sign of how important online streaming and subscription music services have become to the recording industry, trade publication Billboard recently updated its weekly Hot 100 song chart to include data from Spotify, Slacker, Rhapsody, Cricket/Muve, Rdio and MOG. The revamped methodology went live in March 2012, after several months of testing that showed a rising curve for audio streams, from 320.5 million in the first week of 2012 to 494 million during the week of March 4, 2012. By comparison, digital track sales during that period decreased from 46.4 million to 27.1 million, according to Nielsen..."

This is, of course, totally obvious: as good as it is, iTunes is essentially an inadvertent punishment for being interested in more music, since every desire to listen to aka 'consume' new music results in having to spend another dollar on downloading the track. Cloud-based services don't have that problem - and clearly I won't pay $ 20.000 to fill up my iPod with Apple's music, while I have no problem saving 2000 Spotify tracks on my iPhone anytime I want to (and for $10 / month).  I have been talking about this for the past 10 years, but here it is again: access is replacing ownership, like it or not (and I don't see a reason not to like it, as user or as creator). We can wish for this to be different, but it's not. End of story. Participate or become insignificant.

"Another indicator of the popularity of cloud-based streaming was a 50.5% increase in online music listening hours in 2011. According to a February 2012 report from AccuStream Research, US consumers spent 1.3 billion hours listening to music through internet radio and other streaming services in 2011, up from 865 million hours in 2010. The media spend associated with US internet radio and on-demand streaming services amounted to $293.7 million in 2011, according to AccuStream Research. This compares with $171.7 million spent on subscriptions to those services. AccuStream forecast that the total market would grow by 78% in 2012... Ad monetization is expected to grow at a healthy clip on the mobile side as well. eMarketer expects US mobile music advertising revenues to hit $591.5 million in 2015, more than doubling 2012’s total of $264.5 million. According to eMarketer estimates, the advertising component of mobile revenue is much higher with music than with gaming or video, largely because of the popularity of Pandora and Spotify on mobile devices..."

Yes, of course, streaming music currently makes much less money for the content owners and rights holders than downloading does - but the key to making this work is to get EVERYONE involved in streaming legally via one of the existing or future services and platforms, just like radio, i.e. starting with a more or less free / feels-like-free or freemium offering. The math is simple: if 200 Million people use Spotify or Simfy or Rdio - whether they pay 'with attention' aka advertising, via telco bundles, or with their own cash - then the rightsholders will see some serious money coming their way.  If they can't allow this market to grow, then it won't be created (at least not in a legal way)

The bottom line is: the music industry has to monetize AROUND the music, not just WITH the music. Think advertising, bundling, added values... new generatives. There is no sense whatsoever in fighting the obvious trend of access replacing ownership.

 

US online music revenues by source emarketer US online music streams versus downloads emarketer gerd leonhard blog

February 24, 2012

New video: My Keynote on Broadband Futures (from the future with high-speed broadband conference in Auckland)

This nice video just went up on my Youtube channel: my entire keynote speech (67 minutes) from the Future with High Speed Broadband Conference in Auckland, New Zealand on February 23, 2012. Topics: Transformational Technologies and Creating new demand for ICT services - The Future of Broadband and ICT -, in detail: the coming telemedia convergence, the future of content in a hyper-connected society, social networks are cable TV without the cable, why open standards are crucial, why and how data is the new oil, how Control is being replaced by engagement and involvement, why sustainability becomes even more important, the shift from egosystems versus ecosystems, the new drivers of Innovation.  The slides are embedded below, as well.

February 02, 2012

New Video: Zukunft der Medien / Future of Media (MediaFutureDay TPC Switzerland - in German)

Please note: this video is in GERMAN language. It's the entire closing keynote of Future Media Day at TPC in Zurich, Switzerland, on January 24, 2012 see http://emedia.tpcag.ch/?page_id=162 Topics: the future of TV, social TV, OTT & mobile TV, future of content, advertising and content consumption. If you want the PDF please ping me via http://twitter.com/#!/gleonhard

Thanks to TPCMedia for booking me for this really cool event, and for making this video available to me.

Enhanced by Zemanta

October 28, 2011

New video: Visions of a Networked Future at ITU Telecom World

Below is a 10-minute video excerpt from a really interesting session at ITU Teleworld 2011 in Geneva yesterday, October 26, 2011. http://forum.world2011.itu.int/sessions/f17-storytelling-2-visions-of-a-netwo... has further details and the complete 86 minute video.

This Quickfire Storytelling session brings together some of the world's leading futurists (see below) to share bold ideas and conflicting predictions of how the world might look in 10 years' time. This video (which we shot ourselves using a Kodak HDCam and Sony bluetooth mic) shows the first 10 minutes i.e. Gerd's introduction, the 5 minute talk and brief discussion with the other speakers and the audience. Twitter buzz is here

You can download the 10MB PDF of my presentation (unfortunately, the slides are not visible in the video), here.

More details on the other panelists

Gerd Leonhard, CEO, The Futures Agency
Rachel Armstrong, Senior TED Fellow, Senior Lecturer, University of Greenwich
Simon Torrance, Founder 2.0 Initiative, and Chief Executice Officer, STL Partners
Juliana Rotich, CEO, Ushahidi Inc.
Rohit Talwar, CEO, Fast Future

This is the audio-only version (right-click to save the MP3)

Gerd Leonhard Futurist at ITU Teleworld 2012

 

Enhanced by Zemanta

June 14, 2011

Video and PDF: keynote at Norway Media Days 2011: Data is the new Oil

This is an important topic, I think - let me know how you like it.  Topics: why data is the new Oil, why most content will be paid for by 'attention', the radical convergence of media and what it means, the total redefinition of 'consumer', going from 'the network' to 'The Networked' etc.  Download the low-res PDF: Download Data Oil Gerd Leonhard Bergen Public LOW RES

Enhanced by Zemanta

May 03, 2011

Music 2.0: the future. My presentation at Telkom Unlimited Music event in Jakarta.

Here is the slideshow from this event in Jakarta, for Telkom Indonesia. See what Rolling Stone Indonesia had to say about my talk (Bahasa, English / Google Translate). Some Twitter buzz here.

Enhanced by Zemanta

April 07, 2011

New video: Telemedia Futures: how open technologies will shape the future of business, media and communications (USI 2010)

Screen shot 2011-04-07 at 14.45.15 I just ran across this video of my 2010 talk at USI (Paris) and I think it's still quite relevant, so check it out, below. The topic of my talk and presentation is TeleMedia, one of my most popular memes and speaking topics - see the links below.  From the USI event page: 

"Fast and powerful mobile internet devices, social media, real-time search and location-based services are bringing major changes to how we communicate, connect, interact, share, consume, buy and sell, and learn. The disruption has only just started. Telecoms are poised to move up the food-chain, into content, services and experiences, while TV is quickly and totally converging with the web, and mobile devices will become the way most people will experience the Internet. Soon, data is the new oil, and 'the cloud' is the oil-well.

The traditional EGOsystems are becoming ECOsystems and the big Networks must now deal with 'The Networked'. Where is the future going, where are the biggest opportunities (and for whom, and where), and how can we start to adapt to the future, today? Futurist Gerd Leonhard will present the key trends and foresights as well as the most likely scenarios in technology, media / content, communications and advertising, for the next 3 years..."  You download the PDF with my slides here, btw.

Telemedia Futures: comment les technologies ouvertes vont-elles dessiner le futur du business, des médias et des communications
Telemedia Futures: comment les technologies ouvertes vont-elles dessiner le futur du business, des médias et des communications

USI 2010 : conférence incontournable du l'IT en France
Rendez-vous annuel des Geeks et des Boss souhaitant une informatique qui transforme nos sociétés, USI est une conférence de 2 jours sur les sujets IT : Architecture de SI, Cloud Computing, iPhone, Agile, Lean management, Java, .net... USI 2010 a rassemblé 500 personnes autour d’un programme en 4 thèmes : Innovant, Durable, Ouvert et Valeur.
Plus d'informations sur www.universite-du-si.com

Enhanced by Zemanta

December 28, 2010

Is traditional content licensing fit for the digital age?

480px-Sackgasse It seems like every single day I read about how Internet and mobile companies are struggling to obtain the rights for what they want to do, whether it's about music, videos, TV shows, films, articles, text and images.

Here are some quick examples:

  • GoogleTV just can't seem to get the TV studios seriously interested in allowing them to even search their online offerings, while...Holly_610x363
  • Netflix seems to have been more successful at tackling this wicked problem of content licensing, at least  to some degree, by - as cnet aptly puts it  - 'building relationships in traditional means' (I guess this means playing nice with Hollywood? Read the article - those are good, old-fashioned golf-club paradigms I'd say)
  • Spotify is a fantastic music service, no doubt; very much along the lines of what Dave Kusek and me envisioned as 'music like water' in our 2005 book 'The Future of Music', and subsequently expanded on in my follow -up book, Music 2.0 (free PDF here). Spotify is not officially available in Switzerland but I have been successfully using it via a UK paypal account (after trying simfy.de and not getting anywhere with their really awkward and crash-prone iPhone app). Unfortunately, Spotify just can't seem to get the music labels and national rights organizations to bless their launch in many other territories, including the U.S. (read this Slashgear piece for more details ). All of this - you guessed it - because the record companies and the music publishers have not agreed on the licensing and deal terms for those countries, yet, and despite the fact that Spotify is already spending most of its VC money on paying for the music licenses. The fact is that there are no compulsory licenses available for on-demand streaming and flat-rate access services so unless these deals are negotiated nobody can touch it. Read about it here, or here (my Spotify-related blog posts), or via my July 2009 blog post on specifically why I think Spotify is unlikely to survive, or peruse the Zemanta-enabled links below for more enlightenment by some smart people

 So here is the point I am trying to make: I don't think a purely free-market-driven and  unregulated approach will work, in the future. Many large, incumbent media companies, publishers, record labels and other traditional intermediaries (i.e. the 'industry' as opposed to the actual creators) have every reason NOT to be flexible or even slightly forthcoming with their licensing terms and thereby support the deployment of new cloud-based, access-on-demand and flat-rated services. This is simply because their very existence may quickly and  irreversibly change the entire playing-field, and may make it very hard for the incumbent rights-conglomerates to continue to effectively control distribution (and by extension, advertising prices) in the same way as before. These changes aren't for the better when you currently run the entire show, so why should you agree?

This is why Warner Music Group's Edgar Bronfman has said many times that he will not license any unlimited streaming-on-demand service, why Netflix - despite of (or because?) its vast growth - has been back and forth with the Hollywood studios on getting more content deals done, and why Hulu is losing steam because of the studios' concerns over future cable-TV  revenue streams. Clearly, this is all about controlling and milking the market (i.e. the 'people formerly known as consumers') as long as possible. Yes, sure, just like the big telcos used to do before they had to let competition in. This is not about 'getting the artists / creators paid' or about fighting digital piracy - it's about maintaining a comfortable and lucrative monopoly position for the longest possible time. Which is OK, too - if it wasn't for the criminalizing effect it has on every single Internet user.

Control key IS Most large, international media companies (disclosure: many of which are or have been my clients in some way or the other) and almost all major TV, film and music rightsholders are used to absolute control over the distribution of the works (and artists / producers) that they own or represent, and this simple fact used to result in getting much higher license fees - the other party had no choice but to take it or leave it; no license simply meant no (legal) business. This may sound somewhat reasonable in a mostly offline world (i.e. until  just recently, when the mobile Internet started to take of), but on the Net, in a truly networked society, this kind of thinking plays out quite differently: refusal to license at a price that is affordable (and / or financially viable for a  new, potentially huge but legally unprecedented player) simply encourages and produces piracy, because the desired content will become available anyway, legal or not, one way or the other.  The reality is that there is no real control of distribution of digital content, any longer, and all models based on re-achieving that control will fail miserably. Witness the 100s of illegal movie sites that now stream pretty much any movie on-demand, or the many new IP-cloaking and re-routing services (commonly used to access locally restricted content services) that are currently flooding the market. Not licensing content  to new players on actually survivable terms simply lets other, parasitic entities prosper by offering it without permission. Everyone loses.

My thesis is thatCopyright usage right gerd leonhard - just like telecom deregulation - we urgently need new, open and public mechanisms that first significantly encourage and then possibly even enforce the licensing of copyrighted works for new services that require a new and more experimental approach, and that may end up serving the consumers much better than the traditional services. A 'use it or lose it' rule may be useful to that end; and as far as music is concerned I have been proposing a new, public digital music license for a long time.

In any case, I think that a system that continues to be based on deriving future benefits ONLY for the largest and most powerful rightsholders (again, by that I do not mean the actual creators, but the industries that represent them) is, in my view, simply unsustainable  and socially indefensible in this  dawning broadband-culture and in a connected, networked and interdependent society. We need better and more transparent EcoSystems and less EgoSystems; less empires and more Open Networks.

Let me have your feedback please! 

Note: if there is some kind of problem with my comment box on this blog, please use Facebook or Twitter for comments, for now, or email me and I will post them.

 

Enhanced by Zemanta

June 17, 2010

Video: the TV of the Future (cutting the cord)

Below is a very interesting video showing how you can watch TV online without  (in theory) having to pay for Cable TV - interesting trend, for sure. I'm not sure OTT video is quite ready for mainstream yet (certainly the content providers / rights-owners are not;) but this is a trend I'll be watching very closely.

And yes, I do use Boxee on a MacMini at home, in Switzerland, myself; last not least to see what my own videos look like on HD TV.

Enhanced by Zemanta
shadow