Access to music - i.e. a simple click-to-play, anywhere, anytime, anything - is replacing ownership. This trend will quickly accelerate due to the massive global build-up in cheap wireless broadband connectivity, leading us swiftly to the point where listening to a song will be exactly the same as downloading it (at least in practical terms, from the users' perspective). Some of us would argue that this is already the case, of course, but in terms of mass-scale user adoption I would say we are about 18 months away from the pivot point in the so-called developing countries.
The music industry needs to urgently get ready for this: sell access not (just) copies. Bundle. Package. Develop those new generatives. "When copies are free you need to sell things that can't be copied" (Kevin Kelly, The Technium).
Another important trend to embrace is the move to mobile devices that will pretty much replace the computer as primary access point to the Internet i.e. to all digital content. Mobile applications for smart-phones will take the place of sound-carriers; music will be sold as/in/via/with software. Read how Pandora is doing this, in the U.S.
Here is a new video that I have just uploaded to my GerdTube.net channel on Blip.tv (which offers full iTunes download feeds so you can watch all of my videos offline, too) . The topic: Broadband penetration is rapidly increasing around the world, and
Internet access is no longer depending on computers but increasingly
available on mobile devices such as smart phones. Soon, the kids i.e.
the 'digital natives' will run the show, and they expect Radio & TV
to deliver content in much the same way as the Net does: time-shifted,
interactive, engaging, shareable and via any and all platforms. The
imminent total convergence of the Internet and Broadcasting will bring
many challenges to traditional broadcasters (commercial or public) but
there are also unprecedented opportunities - this video discusses the
key trends and future scenarios.
Please note that for some reason some of the transitions and animations are a bit delayed and don't sync 100% correctly with the voice; I have not yet figured out what how to solve this (I use Apple Keynote; and this problem happened when I exported the .key file with the voice-over to Quicktime - if anyone has an idea how to fix this please comment below - thanks). In the meantime, here is a pdf file with every single animation as one page so that you can click along with the video as I speak. Download Broadband Broadcasting step by step slides Gerd Leonhard
UPDATE: Broadband Broadcasting Session 2 IRIB ABU Tehan Gerd Leonhard: here is part 2 of my presentations (Tues 3.30 pm May 19) . The ABU and IRIB kindly invited me to speak at the 2nd International Radio Forum in Tehran (Iran). Some excerpts: Broadband Broadcasting Principles: 1) Broadcasters should be & remain the best possible curators, on all platforms 2) Broadcasters should support time-shifting 3) Broadcasters should support convergence (devices, platforms, UIs) 4) Broad-casters should support sharing 5) Broadcasters should support interactivity & engagement 6) Broadcasters should embrace community & conversation
(< view of Tehran from the hotel... my iPhone's camera always makes it look rather strange). As promised, here is the PDF with my keynote entitled "Broadband & Broadcast - the next 5 years". Download IRIB ABU Tehran Keynote Gerd Leonhard Public
Radio will no longer be about the 'free' delivery of music and audio - everyone else will have that, too (and at least in technical terms, a lot of it will be much better). Once music on the Internet is collectively licensed (i.e. within 1-3 years, depending on which territory we are talking about), on-demand streaming and downloading will simply be included in your Internet access - and Radio Broadcasters will need to add value by being the best possible curators, period. Watch this video on Facebook if you want more details.
Finally, here are the videos from my keynote speech at NPOX 2009 in Hilversum, courtesy of OMROEP, the Dutch broadcasting organization which invited me to speak about The End of Control, the People formerly known as Consumers and the Future of Broadcasting (Radio and TV), at their annual gathering and conference, NPOX. The PDF and slideshare stuff is here.
Over the course of the next 5-6 years, the importance of getting Air-Play on terrestrial i.e. traditional, programmed radio will drastically decline, as people are switching to the Internet (and by extension, to each other) as the #1 way of sourcing music programs. We will see a drastic increase in fragmentation as people will do anything from carefully customizing each track in their lists to just listen to 'what's on' - and there will be 100s of permutations in between. From total engagement to total passive consumption, there will be offers covering each - and they will all be connected.
Because of the strong uptake in next generation mobile devices (fka cell phones), the explosive proliferation of social networks and the drastic increase in wireless broadband capabilities at ever decreasing costs (yes, not yet - but give it another 18 months) we will see people use their mobile devices as prime instruments of listening to radio-like music programs - there will be hundreds of radio/music apps available via the various app stores that each device maker AND operator will offer; some paid, most feels-like-free, some sponsored.
The other point is that as the car becomes fully connected and always-online people will shift their music consumption to Net-based offerings while on the road, as well (in addition to the already stiff in-car competition from iPods etc) - this will be a very very very serious challenge to traditional Radio (and TV) broadcasters. Local news, traffic, sports etc will be programmable to interlace with your Internet-based stations - the best of both worlds? Talk about Change!
Some readers may recall that the very existence of Pandora, one of the biggest next-generation, personalized digital radio platforms was recently seriously endangered by the threat of having to pay outlandish and retroactive music licensing fees right after having been kicked out of Europe (also for similarly bizarre licensing reasons). Now, thankfully, a report reveals that Pandora has gained an even bigger (albeit only U.S.-based) audience by launching a free iPhone application that is, you guessed it, entirely supported by some apparently quite smart advertising. I wish I could see for myself but since I am in beautiful Switzerland I have been barred from the pleasures of Pandora - after all, why would the music licensing organizations even bother with Pandora's international users... right?
But anyway, what is so great to hear (see the press release) is that ad-supported music seems to work so very much better on the iPhone (and soon, many other mobile devices, I would hope) than it does on the good old computer - this, I think, holds great potential for the future of ad-supported, free or feels like free + freemium content on mobile devices. First music, then films / TV, then books (and games.... yes, of course: already there!)
A quote from the press release (December 4, 2008) sums it up very nicely (even if we remove the few instances of PR hype): "Since September 22, when Pandora began marketing its iPhone platform
to marketers, it's had a steady queue of the biggest national brands
anxious to deliver their ad messages to iPhone mobile users with
Pandora as the conduit. The first advertisers to launch on Pandora's
iPhone application were Best Buy and Beck's, followed by a list of
other top tier brands such as Target, HP, Nike and Kraft Foods. To
date, Pandora's iPhone ad platform has delivered over the twice the
response rate as its other ad products due to the highly interactive
nature of the device. Additionally, iPhone users can continue to
stream music while they engage with the ad so the user experience is
not diminished in any way"
Here is the key, in my view: it's all about the INTERFACE. The USER EXPERIENCE. That is what is so great about the iPhone (after all, it's really a lousy phone, in my view, but a great mobile computer and communication device), and that's what's so great about Pandora, too. The sum of the two really makes it tick, I guess. Next destination: Nokia?
I think users will pay to use the Pandora interface, the functionality, the build-in community features; and advertisers and brands will pay to align themselves with those tens of millions of keen and open, interested and fast-clicking users. And yet other users would probably pay to have Pandora without ads, too!
Now (add: sound of broken record) if only the labels, publishers and rights societies could actually allow them to make this work, economically - then we would have something that would show a real path to a mutually beneficial future; a future that will create many of those 'New Generatives' that Kevin Kelly writes about, and a future that is based on true collaboration in an open ecosystem.
Here is an another interesting fact from the release: "Currently, Pandora's iPhone users spend an average of 90 minutes a
day interacting with the application, accounting for nearly 1.2
million ad impressions per day..." This is pointing us straight to a future recipe of success: great interface + supreme ease of use + great content + great community features + freemium + ads2.0 = Success.
Pandora reaches
roughly one in every five iPhone users in the U.S., already (and is set to have 20 Million users by the end of the year) - so what would happen if the music industry took the lid off, and allowed them to broad/narrow/micro/social-cast worldwide, on the iPhone, the new N97 and Nokia's Ovi enabled phones that are coming down the pike, 3's Facebook
phone, Google Android Phones...? You tell me.
It's always a great pleasure to be in Holland where people are usually very open to Change and... where 88.4% of the population is online ;) I was invited by the Dutch Broadcasting Organization (OMROEP) to speak about The End of Control, the People formerly known as Consumers and the Future of Broadcasting (Radio and TV), at their annual gathering and conference, NPOX.
Here is the Dutch description of the session: "Gerd Leonhard(Swi) is Media
Futurist. Volgens hem zijn we slechts 1 a 2 jaar verwijderd van een
generatie die ´af en toe online´ is, naar een generatie die ´nooit meer
off-line´ is. In zijn verhaal ‘the end of control and the people
formerly known as Consumers’, laat hij zien wat de gevolgen zijn van
deze verschuiving op het gebied van economie, cultuur en media en wat
de trends en uitdagingen zijn voor de toekomst" Google translates this in true web-way here.
Mark Ramsay's blog points to a new app for the iphone, offered by Radiotime, and Weather Underground: Hear 2.0: Thousands of Radio Stations - Now on the iPhone. So we are finally getting there: via the iPhone, Internet radio is arriving in the CAR. What will this do to 'Radio 1.0' vs Radio 2.0? Now imagine an app hat saves the streams for a few hours (see the Pioneer Inno) [*probably already exists for the jailbroken iPhones] or get a wimax chip, and we'll have 15.000+ radio online radio stations available. Get Ready + we ain't seen nothing yet.
Mark has a good audio interview on his blog post, too, with the CEO of Radiotime.
Also - given that spoke to the Trinidad music industry just yesterday - THIS is the kind of thing you need to promote your music: make a Trini music iPhone app that provides free streams. As Mark says "A distribution channel called the iPhone"
This is a presentation I have it late 2007 but it is still very much to-the-point and relevant. Slideshare.net rocks, btw - it's really the Youtube of Slideshows. You can check out all of my slideshows on Slideshare, here (pdf downloads for all of them).
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